1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that The Gambia should reduce its domestic emissions by 25% emit no more than 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
The Gambiaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
Reference year
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−25%
NDC (conditional)
−8%
NDC (unconditional)
+85%
Ambition gap
−17%
1.5°C compatible pathways
Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
Current policy projections
1.5°C emissions range
Historical emissions
2030 NDC
The Gambia’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets out an emissions reduction target of 49.7% (incl. LULUCF) below business as usual (BAU) by 2030 which translates to an absolute emissions level of 2.7 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF in 2030.1-3
5 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). (2021) doi:10.5281/zenodo.5175154.
13 “Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MoPE). Universal Access by 2025 and Transforming The Gambia Electricity Sub-sector: Strategic Roadmap 2021-2040. 2021.
The Gambia’s 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway is feasible to achieve if the country receives adequate international support.
Long term strategy
The Gambia submitted its Long Term Climate Neutral Development Strategy 2050 to the UNFCCC in September 2022 which includes its net zero target by 2050.4 To be 1.5°C compatible, The Gambia’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) need to fall to 40% below 2015 levels by 2050 which equals 1.8 MtCO₂e.
Sectoral emissions
When excluding LULUCF, these emissions reductions will be mostly driven by efforts to improve agricultural practices and to reduce reliance on imported fuel oil in the transport sector.