South Africa is predominantly reliant on road travel for passengers and freight within and between its major metropoles and trade centres. This has resulted in the sector producing just over 13% of the country’s total CO₂ emissions (in 2017). Emissions increased from approximately 0.041 MtCO₂ in 2000 to 0.055 MtCO₂ in 2017.23
The transport sector is dominated by the use of fossil fuel-derived liquid fuels. The share of electricity and biofuels is minimal and there is no infrastructure to introduce hydrogen. In 2020, 78% of passenger transport was by road, with electric vehicles (EVs) making up only 0.06% of car sales.27
To achieve a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the transport sector’s fossil fuel reliance would need to be dramatically reduced for emissions to decline 51% to 77% from 2019 levels by 2030. However, the South African Department of Transport has only committed to a 5% emissions reduction from the transport sector by 2050.18
The 1.5°C scenarios analysed show a wide range of pathways leading to decarbonisation of the sector occurring between 2037 and 2062. Higher range of electricity penetration leads to a quicker decarbonisation of the sector (Low Energy Demand scenario). This pace of decarbonisation would only be possible with a rapid scaling up of the use of electricity, produced by renewables, in the sector (to between 70% to 97% by 2050).
28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
South Africaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
10203040506019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa