Singapore’s transport sector in 2018 made up 12.4% of direct and 2.4% of indirect emissions.¹⁸ Total primary energy consumption of the transport sector in Singapore has been steadily increasing since 1990 from 0.056 EJ in 1990 to 0.16 EJ in 2019.¹⁶ In 2019, the transport sector consumed 13% of total primary energy and 5.8% of electricity. Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires rapid electrification of Singapore’s transport sector with increasing share of electricity in the sector energy demand to 64-90% by 2030 and 96-99% by 2050. All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct emissions from transport to 1-2 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, reaching zero by 2050 from 2019 level of 7 MtCO₂/yr, mostly driven by a high electrification rate. Hydrogen and biofuel don’t show significant growth potential in this sector in our analysed scenarios.

Primary energy consumption in the transport sector is completely dominated by oil (90% in 2017), and all scenarios show a declining trend of fossil energy demand from 2020, reaching zero to 4% share by 2050. One of the scenarios is showing a fossil fuel phase-out from the sector by 2050.

Singapore is planning to phase out Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles by 2040. However, starting from 2030 all newly registered vehicles will be “cleaner-energy” models. Natural gas is part of that “cleaner energy” mix, which is not in line with 1.5°C pathways. To support the uptake of electric vehicles, the government is aiming to deploy 60,000 charging points at public carparks and private premises by 2030.¹⁸ Singapore is also encouraging active transport and modal shift in its Land Transport Master Plan 2040 and there is a strong policy push for increased production of biofuel in Jurong industrial hub, particularly for the aviation and marine sectors.^7,20

¹ Singapore government. Singapore’s Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Accompanying Information. (2020).

² Climate Action Tracker. Singapore CAT Climate Target Update Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

³ Channel News Asia. Singapore to review its climate change target as world leaders agree COP26 deal. (2021).

⁴ CAT. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker, Singapore. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

⁵ National Environment Agency. Singapore’s Fourth Biennial Update Report. (2020).

⁶ Lau, H. C. et al. A Decarbonization Roadmap for Singapore and Its Energy Policy Implications. (2021) doi:10.3390/en14206455.

⁷ EDB: Singapore. Sustainable Jurong Island. 2021.

⁸ National Climate Change Secretariat. Charting Singapore’s Low-Carbon and Climate Resilient Future. (2020).

⁹ Strachen, E. & Greening, P. The Singapore Budget 2022 – A Continuing Commitment to Advancing Singapore’s Green Transition – Lexology. (2022).

¹⁰ UN Climate Change Conference (COP26). Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement. (2021).

¹¹ Duarte, C., Raftery, P. & Schiavon, S. Development of Whole-Building Energy Models for Detailed Energy Insights of a Large Office Building with Green Certification Rating in Singapore. Energy Technol. 6, 84–93 (2018).

¹² Climate Action Tracker. Singapore. (2020).

¹³ Wamsted, D. & Schlissel, D. Petra Nova Mothballing Post-Mortem: Closure of Texas Carbon Capture Plant Is a Warning Sign. (2020).

¹⁴ Sun Cable. Sun Cable Website. Sun Cable. (2021).

¹⁵ Vidinopoulos, A., Whale, J. & Fuentes Hutfilter, U. Assessing the technical potential of ASEAN countries to achieve 100% renewable energy supply. Sustain. Energy Technol. Assessments 42, 100878 (2020).

¹⁶ IEA. Singapore. International Energy Agency. (2021).

¹⁷ PIK. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. (2021).

¹⁸ NCCS. Singapore’s Emissions Profile. (2021).

¹⁹ Lewis, J. Shell mulls Singapore carbon capture hub and biofuels plant. (2021).

²⁰ Land Transport Authority. Land Transport Master Plan 2040. (2021).

²¹ Data excludes Land use, Land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions. However, Singapore’s LULUCF emissions account for very little (e.g. 0.1 MtCO₂e/yr in 2014).

²² 32 MtCO₂e calculated in AR4 values by the Climate Action Tracker. Source cites 33 MtCO₂e/yr in AR5 GWP values.

²³ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.