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Russia Sectors

What is Russiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Russia’s climate policies targeting the transport sector are badly lacking, with no plans to phase out the sale of light or heavy duty fossil fuel vehicles, while support for, and sales of electric vehicles (EVs) remain vanishingly low. Achieving even its recently set unambitious target of a 5% EV share of total car sales by 2025 appears unlikely. Moscow has targeted the installation of 200 charging stations a year, aiming to reach 600 by 2023.19 There were just 1000 charging stations across the whole of Russia in 2021. An already extensive rail network is targeted for an increase of 16,000km between 2008 and 2030, with a 33% increase in rail passengers over the same period.13 However, no sector-wide emissions or energy use targets are currently in place.

Transport emissions in Russia increased steeply over a decade from their 1997 low. They remained relatively flat after the 2008 economic slowdown, but have been increasing again in recent years.6 This trend will need to reverse dramatically if emissions from this sector are to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways. A fall in direct CO₂ emissions by at least half below 2019 levels of 256 MtCO₂ will need to occur by 2030, led by a steep increase in electrification to between a quarter and a third of total transport final energy demand from its current level of 7%. This will not be possible under the current transport targets for EVs and rail passenger expansion. Full decarbonisation of the sector by around 2050 would be needed to align with 1.5°C pathways.

Russiaʼs energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 0004 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 0004 000
Low energy demand
20192030204020502 0003 0004 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 0003 0004 000
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Russiaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
5010015020025030019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised transport sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
256
102 to 122
36 to 53
7 to 14
2049 to 2054
Relative to reference year in %
−60 to −52%
−86 to −79%
−97 to −95%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
7
24 to 34
37 to 66
53 to 77
Share of biofuels
Percent
0
3 to 15
10 to 13
10 to 26
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
4 to 6
5 to 49
19 to 67

Footnotes