Direct emissions from Russia’s building sector, after seeing a slight downward trend since their collapse in the early 1990’s, have skyrocketed in recent years, reaching their highest level since 1993.⁶ Direct emissions from residential buildings in particular increased 78% between 2012 and 2019, reaching a 28-year high largely due to enormous increases in both gas and oil consumption, and despite a 30% reduction in coal demand.

A 1.5°C pathway for Russia’s building sector would see direct CO₂ emissions fall by just over three quarters below 2019 levels of 220 MtCO₂ by 2030, reaching zero around 2050. Previously set buildings energy efficiency targets were scrapped in 2020 and replaced by more ambiguous ones in a draft Energy Efficiency Action Plan that remains unapproved as of March 2022.¹⁷ The plan contains no specific emissions or energy efficiency targets for the building sector. The previous regulations mandated a 50% reduction below baseline by 2028.

Given the plan’s current draft status, Russia could use this opportunity to include concrete and stringent building sector targets to reduce fossil fuel use and overall energy consumption, and increase electrification. 1.5°C pathways show the electrification rate could reach 40-50% by 2030, and two thirds by 2040, from its current 15%. Rapidly decarbonising the power sector is critical to ensure electrification of buildings energy demand results in the necessary steep emissions reductions.