What is Qatarʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Qatar
After Russia and Iran, Qatar holds the world’s third largest fossil gas reserves in the world and is one of the largest suppliers of liquified natural gas (LNG).17 The industry sector has grown rapidly in Qatar in the past two decades as the sector accounted for 44% of total final energy consumption in 2018.6
Energy-related emissions from the industry sector rose eight-fold between 1990 and 2019 reaching about 50 MtCO₂ in 2019.4 At the same time, process-related emissions rose more than six-fold from 2 MtCO₂e/yr in 1990 to 13 MtCO₂e/yr in 2017. In 1.5°C compatible pathways, energy-related CO₂ emissions in Qatar’s industry sector would need to decline to 13 MtCO2 in 2030 and 3–4 MtCO₂ in 2050. The share of electricity in the industry sector would need to increase from 12% in 2019 to 18–19% in 2030, and 36–60% in 2050.
Currently, Qatar is dramatically ramping up fossil gas production and undercutting competitors to cement its status as one of the top LNG suppliers in the world with a huge expansion plan.18 As part of its climate goals, under the state-owned petroleum company QatarEnergy’s Sustainability Strategy, the company outlines that it will take measures to reduce the carbon intensity of its LNG facilities by 25% and upstream operations by 15% compared to 2013 levels by 2030, partly by eliminating flaring and increasing the carbon capture and storage (CCS) capacity of LNG operations.11 However, the planned fossil gas expansion would lead to a rise in both energy and process-related emissions from the industry sector, raising the risk of asset stranding and undermining Qatar’s contribution to global efforts under the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5°C. While Qatar’s strategy relies heavily on capturing emissions through the use of CCS technologies, these are not currently available at scale, require high investment costs and are inherently risky.
4 Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2018) (Version 2.2). Preprint at doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4479172 (2021).
8 Krarti, M., Ali, F., Alaidroos, A. & Houchati, M. Macro-economic benefit analysis of large scale building energy efficiency programs in Qatar. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 6, 597–609 (2017).
15 Hassabou, A. M. & Khan, M. A. Energy Efficient & Sustainable Buildings: Integration with solar assisted air-conditioning technology in Qatar-A Step towards Grid Free Zero Carbon Living. (2018) doi:10.18086/eurosun2018.06.15.
20 Al-Buenain, A. et al. The Adoption of Electric Vehicles in Qatar Can Contribute to Net Carbon Emission Reduction but Requires Strong Government Incentives. Vehicles 3, 618–635 (2021).
Qatarʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
102030405019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
Qatarʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
0510152019902010203020502070
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
SSP1 High CDR reliance
Low energy demand
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Qatar