What is Qatarʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?
Qatar
1.5°C compatible pathways
2030 Ambition
Qatar aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 25% below a BAU scenario by 2030 but does not specify what that BAU scenario is.1 To estimate the level of ambition implied by this target, we construct a BAU range based on the historical ten-year trend of Qatar’s emissions for the upper range and a downscaled pathway that reflects factors such as falling costs of renewables for the lower range. We estimate a wide range of 147–213 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF for Qatar’s NDC target. To be 1.5°C compatible, Qatar would need to reduce its GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) by 53–59% below 2015 levels and reach a level of 78–90 MtCO₂e by 2030. While there is significant uncertainty in the formulation of Qatar’s target, our estimate places it well out of reach of 1.5°C.
While Qatar has adopted some sectoral policies, such as state-owned QatarEnergy’s Sustainability Strategy, they remain vague and lack detail in exactly what measures will be taken, and still promote the use of fossil gas.
Long-term pathway
Qatar does not have a net zero emissions target. To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, Qatar would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 90% below 2015 levels, reaching 20 MtCO₂e by 2050.
All 1.5°C pathways except the Low Energy Demand pathway show some use of carbon dioxide removal technologies in the energy system by 2040, and in some pathways the energy sector has net negative emissions by 2060.
4 Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2018) (Version 2.2). Preprint at doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4479172 (2021).
8 Krarti, M., Ali, F., Alaidroos, A. & Houchati, M. Macro-economic benefit analysis of large scale building energy efficiency programs in Qatar. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 6, 597–609 (2017).
15 Hassabou, A. M. & Khan, M. A. Energy Efficient & Sustainable Buildings: Integration with solar assisted air-conditioning technology in Qatar-A Step towards Grid Free Zero Carbon Living. (2018) doi:10.18086/eurosun2018.06.15.
20 Al-Buenain, A. et al. The Adoption of Electric Vehicles in Qatar Can Contribute to Net Carbon Emission Reduction but Requires Strong Government Incentives. Vehicles 3, 618–635 (2021).
More than half of Qatar’s GHG emissions come from fuel combustion in the industry, power, and transport sectors.13 Nearly one-third of GHG emissions are fugitive emissions from oil and gas exploration. Clear and stringent policies are critical for the transformation of these sectors. An implementation of energy efficiency and process optimisation measures is crucial to reduce emissions from the energy sector in Qatar. To be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, Qatar would need to ramp up the uptake of renewable energy in its primary energy mix, reaching 4–7% by 2030 and 25–50% by 2050. Similarly, the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation mix would need to reach 8–15% by 2030 and 75–100% by 2050. At the same time, Qatar will need to phase out fossil fuels.
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Qatar. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.