Pakistan’s updated NDC targets an overall emissions reduction of 50% below business as usual level including land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF): 15% unconditional and 35% subject to international financial support.
In absolute terms, the overall target, when excluding LULUCF, translates to an increase from 416 MtCO₂e/yr in 2015 to between 787 and 838 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030. This would constitute an increase of between 89-102% above 2015 levels.
International support will be needed to help the country implement a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway, which requires a reduction of 37-46% below 2015 levels by 2030 (or 225-263 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030) while still meeting the country’s growing energy demand.
1.5°C compatible pathways show that Pakistan could reduce CO₂ emissions by around 90-95% below 2015 levels in 2050, while GHG emissions could decrease by 66-67% in 2050 below 2015 levels, to 137-142 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050.
Remaining emissions, mostly coming from agriculture and waste would then be balanced through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as from the land sector.
Decarbonising its economy through the uptake of renewables is the best option for the country to reduce its reliance on fossil imports and associated costs.