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Norway Sectors

What is Norwayʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Power sector in 2030

Norway’s electricity generation comes predominately from hydropower, which constituted 90% of total generation in 2020.3 A further 8.5% was generated by wind power, with less than 2% coming from fossil fuel generation, down from a high of 4% in 2010. Much of the remaining fossil fuel generation is situated at industrial installations, and will come under increasing financial pressure as Norway’s carbon tax is tripled to €200/MtCO₂ by 2030.12 A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Norway’s power sector would see the remaining gas generation, which constitutes the majority of the sector’s fossil fuel use, phased out between 2022 and 2023.

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

A 1.5°C compatible pathway for Norway’s power sector would see net zero emissions achieved by 2023 at the latest. This would entail the shuttering of remaining fossil fuel plants by this time, or at the very least, switching from burning fossil fuels to sustainably sourced biomass. Retrofitting existing fossil fuel plants to burn sustainable biomass with carbon capture and storage would be a way to achieve negative emissions in the power sector.

1 Norwegian Government. Update of Norway’s nationally determined contribution. 1–16 (2020).

2 Norwegian Environmental Agency. Norway’s Fourth Biennial Report. (2020).

3 Energy Facts Norway. Electricity Production.(2021).

4 Climate Action Tracker. Country Summary: Norway. (2021).

5 Statistics Norway. Emissions to air. (2021).

6 Norwegian Government. Norway’s long-term low-emission strategy for 2050. (2020).

7 Gavenas, E., Rosendahl, K. E. & Skjerpen, T. CO2 emissions from Norwegian oil and gas extraction. (2015).

8 IEA. World Energy Balances 2019 . (2020).

9 Klesty, V. Electric cars rise to record 54% market share in Norway in 2020. Reuters. (2021).

10 Norsk elbilforening. Electric Car Stock. (2021).

11 Norwegian Government. Norway’s comprehensive climate action plan. (2021).

12 Buli, N. & Adomaitis, N. Norway’s plans to raise carbon tax draw oil industry ire. Reuters. (2021).

13 Norsk elbilforening. Norwegian EV policy. (2021).

14 Avinor. Avinor and Norwegian aviation 2018. (2018).

15 Brown, M. Norway Just Mandated Zero-Emission Fjords to Lead Electric Boat Charge | Inverse. (2018).

16 Reuters. Oil producer Norway bans use of heating oil in buildings. (2017).

17 Government of Norway. 2021 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2021).

18 EHPA. Online Stats Tool. European Heat Pump Association. (2021).

19 Brekke, T., Isachsen, O. & Marton, I. Implementation of the EPBD Norway: Status in 2020. (2020).

20 Norwegian Petroleum. Production Forecasts. (2022)..

21 Solsvik, T. Norway plans to expand Arctic oil and gas drilling in new licensing round. Reuters .(2022).

22 Kurmayer, N. J. Germany, Norway agree tentative plan to build hydrogen pipeline link. Euractiv. (2022).

23 Klesty, V. Electric cars hit 65% of Norway sales as Tesla grabs overall pole. Reuters. (2022)..

24 Ferris, N. Weekly data: Why Norway leads the world for electric vehicles. Energy Monitor. (2022).

25 Holland, M. Norway Above 86% Plugin EV Share In February, Ioniq 5 Leads. CleanTechnica. (2022).

26 Government of Norway. Norway’s comprehensive climate action plan. (2021).

27 Government of Norway. National Transport Plan 2022–2033. (2021).

28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

29 Year of full decarbonisation is based on carbon intensity threshold of 5gCO₂/MJ.

Norwayʼs power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling
Dimension
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050400
100%RE
2019203020402050400
SSP1 High CDR reliance
2019203020402050400
Low energy demand
2019203020402050400
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050400
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Renewables incl. biomass

Norwayʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
−2−1012319902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand
  • 100%RE

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Norway

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
10
0
0
0
2023 to 2025
Relative to reference year in %
−93 to −86%
−100%
−109 to −107%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of phase-out
Share of unabated coal
Percent
0
0
0
0
Share of unabated gas
Percent
2
0
0
0
2022 to 2024
Share of renewable energy
Percent
98
100
100
100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
Percent
2
0
0
0

Investments

Demand shifting towards the power sector

The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.

Norwayʼs renewable electricity investments

Billion USD / yr

203020402050206010

Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy

Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Norway to be on the order of USD 4 to 11 billion by 2030 and 7 to 16 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.

Footnotes