Norway’s strengthened 2030 target aims to reduce GHG emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 (52% below 1990 levels excl. LULUCF). In absolute terms this is a reduction from 51 MtCO₂e/yr in 1990 to 25 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. A 60% reduction below 1990 levels is the median reduction in our derived range of pathways and is aligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature target.
Under current policies, Norway is projected to fall well short of achieving its 2030 emissions reduction target. This does not include the impact of the government’s recently released white paper outlining its climate action plan. It is currently not clear whether the policies contained in this plan are sufficient to achieve a 55% reduction below 1990 levels.
With regards to the LULUCF sector, Norway is committed to ensure that emissions do not exceed removals from the sector.
Long term pathway
Norway’s NDC aims for a transformation towards a “low-emission society”, which has been quantified by the government as an 90-95% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels. This is in line with Paris Agreement compatible pathways showing emissions reductions of 92% below 1990 levels by 2050.
All scenarios show low levels of negative emissions technologies, mainly due to Norway’s very low carbon power sector. Harder to abate residual emissions from agriculture and the energy sector in 2050 could instead be addressed through a continuation of afforestation and reforestation efforts.
Heavy ongoing investment into industrial carbon capture and storage reflects Norway’s strategy for decarbonising its fossil fuel extraction and processing sector and other heavy industries. However, commercial viability of this technology has remained elusive for many years suggesting rather a multi-faceted approach to achieving net zero emissions may be necessary in order to reach the emission reduction goals. Such alternatives could include afforestation, direct air capture, or enhanced weathering, among others.