The industry sector’s share of total final energy consumption in Morocco has been declining over the past decade, from 23.5% of total final consumption in 2012 to 19.2% in 2019 while emissions have been steadily rising.⁶ The Government of Morocco estimates that emissions from this sector will rise from around 20 MtCO₂e in 2010 to 33.23 MtCO₂e in 2030 under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, which is equivalent to 65% by 2030.⁴

The energy-related direct CO₂ emissions of Morocco’s industry sector are slightly higher than the emissions from industry-related processes. To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Morocco’s industry sector would need to decarbonise between 2048-2054, with direct CO₂ emissions reducing from 8 MtCO₂/year in 2019 to 3 MtCO₂ in 2040, and 0-2 MtCO₂ by 2050.

Some scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions will reduce faster than process-related emissions. Almost all scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions will be closer to full decarbonisation by 2060. The decarbonisation would be primarily driven by an increase in the share of electricity in the sector’s energy supply from 33% in 2019 to 50-64% by 2050. Some scenarios also suggest that biofuels, biomass, and hydrogen would start to replace some of the oil and coal that currently power 61% of the industry sector. These new sources of energy could be introduced as early as 2030-2040. To be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, the collective share of electricity, biomass, and hydrogen in the sector’s energy supply would have to increase from 34% in 2019 to 52-62% in 2040, and 73-85% by 2050.

With regards to process-related emissions, some scenarios suggest that emissions could reduce from 6 MtCO₂e in 2019 to 0-4 MtCO₂e by 2040. This could be driven by improved production processes and innovation. Morocco aims to mitigate 19 MtCO₂e in the total industry sector by 2030 (relative to BAU levels)this includes 8 MtCO₂e by 2030 (relative to BAU levels) for process-related emissions.⁴ However, one of the mitigation interventions for processing industries is the utilisation of 500 million m³ of natural gas between 2021 and 2023 to replace fuel in thermal processes.⁴ This will lead to increase in emissions, and risks the country locking itself in a carbon-intensive pathway and creating stranded assets.

¹ Ministère de l’Energie, des M. et de l’Environnement, D. de l’Environnement. Contribution Déterminée au Niveau National – Actualisée. (2021).

² Chargé de l’Environnement. 3éme Communication Nationale du Maroc à la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques. (2016).

³ Chargé de l’Environnement. Plan Climat National à horizon 2030. (2020).

⁴ Département du Développement Durable. 3ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé du Maroc dans le cadre de la CCNUCC. (2022).

⁵ Département de l’Environnement. 2ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé Dans le cadre de la convention cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques. (2019).

⁶ International Energy Agency. Morocco: Data Browser. International Energy Agency. (2022).

⁷ Climate Action Tracker. Morocco: Policies & action. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

⁸ Hatim, Y. Morocco Extends Jorf Lasfar Power Plant Contract With Emirati Company. Morocco World News. (2020).

⁹ Ministry of Economy and Finance. Signing ceremony for the extension of the Power Purchase Agreement of the Jorf Lasfar Thermal Power Plant. Ministry of Economy and Finance. (2020).

¹⁰ Climate Action Tracker. Morocco: Targets. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

¹¹ MAP Ecology. «Forêts du Maroc 2020-2030» : Une stratégie consacrant la vision royale du DD. Agence Marocaine De Presse. (2020).

¹² Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable. Production de l’Electricité. Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable..

¹³ Nareva. Our Assets and Projects: Safi Thermal Power Plant. Nareva. (2020).

¹⁴ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

¹⁵ It should be noted, however, that an increased share of electricity can only facilitate the decarbonisation of the building sector if the electricity is sourced from renewable energies. The “Power” section of this profile elaborates on the pathways for decarbonisation of Morocco’s power sector.