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Morocco Sectors

What is Moroccoʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Morocco has seen its overall energy consumption rise steadily over the past 10 years. While transport accounts for the highest share of total final energy consumption in Morocco, residential buildings are the second-highest consumer, accounting for 25-26% of total final consumption in 2019, while commercial buildings accounted for 7-8% of total final consumption.6 In 2019, 52% of the energy mix in the buildings sector consisted of oil, 27% of electricity, and 21% of biomass.4

The government of Morocco anticipates energy consumption from the buildings sector to increase due to population growth, the development of new cities, and the utilisation of air conditioning and heating systems across Morocco.4

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Morocco would need to reduce the direct annual CO₂ emissions from the buildings sector from 8 MtCO₂ in 2019 to zero no later than 2056. This can be achieved through a rapid increase in the electrification rate of the building sector. The share of electricity would need to rise from 27% in 2019 to 41-50% in 2030, and 82-85% by 2050.15

Morocco aims to mitigate 3.782 MtCO₂e in the buildings sector by 2030 (relative to BAU levels) through a range of measures expressed in its Third Biennial Update Report.4 These include a national plan for the development of solar water heaters; the mainstreaming of LED lamps in the residential sector; minimum energy performance standards for refrigerators and air conditioners; energy efficiency standards for new buildings and tourist accommodations; 1000 MWp of solar power installations for self-consumption in residential and tertiary sectors; and an energy efficiency programme for public lighting (see the targets section for more information).4 While these are encouraging steps in the right direction, Morocco would need to accelerate and enhance such initiatives to achieve full decarbonisation of the buildings sector between 2039-2056.

1 Ministère de l’Energie, des M. et de l’Environnement, D. de l’Environnement. Contribution Déterminée au Niveau National – Actualisée. (2021).

2 Chargé de l’Environnement. 3éme Communication Nationale du Maroc à la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques. (2016).

3 Chargé de l’Environnement. Plan Climat National à horizon 2030. (2020).

4 Département du Développement Durable. 3ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé du Maroc dans le cadre de la CCNUCC. (2022).

5 Département de l’Environnement. 2ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé Dans le cadre de la convention cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques. (2019).

6 International Energy Agency. Morocco: Data Browser. International Energy Agency. (2022).

7 Climate Action Tracker. Morocco: Policies & action. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

8 Hatim, Y. Morocco Extends Jorf Lasfar Power Plant Contract With Emirati Company. Morocco World News. (2020).

9 Ministry of Economy and Finance. Signing ceremony for the extension of the Power Purchase Agreement of the Jorf Lasfar Thermal Power Plant. Ministry of Economy and Finance. (2020).

10 Climate Action Tracker. Morocco: Targets. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

11 MAP Ecology. «Forêts du Maroc 2020-2030» : Une stratégie consacrant la vision royale du DD. Agence Marocaine De Presse. (2020).

12 Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable. Production de l’Electricité. Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable..

13 Nareva. Our Assets and Projects: Safi Thermal Power Plant. Nareva. (2020).

14 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

15 It should be noted, however, that an increased share of electricity can only facilitate the decarbonisation of the building sector if the electricity is sourced from renewable energies. The “Power” section of this profile elaborates on the pathways for decarbonisation of Morocco’s power sector.

Moroccoʼs energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050400
SSP1 High CDR reliance
2019203020402050400
Low energy demand
2019203020402050400
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050400
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Moroccoʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
246810121419902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Morocco

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised buildings sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
8
9 to 10
0 to 8
0 to 4
2039 to 2056
Relative to reference year in %
20 to 33%
−100 to −1%
−100 to −51%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
27
41 to 50
68 to 83
82 to 85
Share of heat
Percent
0
0
0 to 2
0 to 4
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
0
0
0 to 1

Footnotes