The energy sector is the largest source of emissions in Morocco with a share of around 76% of total emissions in 2018, based on Morocco’s 3^rd Biennial Update Report (reference approach). This is followed by the agricultural sector, which is responsible for approximately 10% of total national emissions. Out of all sectors, the IPPU and waste sectors contribute the lowest amount to national emissions, with a 7% and 6% share each respectively.⁴

The LULUCF sector in Morocco is a source of negative emissions and serves as a crucial carbon sink. In 2018, the sector absorbed approximately 1.7 MtCO₂e.⁵ However, the amount of carbon absorbed by the LULUCF sector decreased consistently between 2010 and 2016, indicating a decline in the sector’s capacity to serve as a carbon sink.⁵

Under a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, Morocco anticipates total national emissions to rise to 142 MtCO₂e by 2030.¹ With Morocco’s NDC including an intention to build additional natural gas infrastructure, emissions from the energy sector can be expected to continue to grow. Emissions from the waste and agricultural sectors also grew consistently between 2010 and 2018, suggesting an increasing trend in these sectors’ emissions as well.⁴ The IPPU sector saw its share of national emissions reduce from 8% in 2010 to 6% in 2018.⁵

¹ Ministère de l’Energie, des M. et de l’Environnement, D. de l’Environnement. Contribution Déterminée au Niveau National – Actualisée. (2021).

² Chargé de l’Environnement. 3éme Communication Nationale du Maroc à la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques. (2016).

³ Chargé de l’Environnement. Plan Climat National à horizon 2030. (2020).

⁴ Département du Développement Durable. 3ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé du Maroc dans le cadre de la CCNUCC. (2022).

⁵ Département de l’Environnement. 2ème Rapport Biennal Actualisé Dans le cadre de la convention cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques. (2019).

⁶ International Energy Agency. Morocco: Data Browser. International Energy Agency. (2022).

⁷ Climate Action Tracker. Morocco: Policies & action. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

⁸ Hatim, Y. Morocco Extends Jorf Lasfar Power Plant Contract With Emirati Company. Morocco World News. (2020).

⁹ Ministry of Economy and Finance. Signing ceremony for the extension of the Power Purchase Agreement of the Jorf Lasfar Thermal Power Plant. Ministry of Economy and Finance. (2020).

¹⁰ Climate Action Tracker. Morocco: Targets. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

¹¹ MAP Ecology. «Forêts du Maroc 2020-2030» : Une stratégie consacrant la vision royale du DD. Agence Marocaine De Presse. (2020).

¹² Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable. Production de l’Electricité. Office National de l’Electricité et de l’Eau portable..

¹³ Nareva. Our Assets and Projects: Safi Thermal Power Plant. Nareva. (2020).

¹⁴ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

¹⁵ It should be noted, however, that an increased share of electricity can only facilitate the decarbonisation of the building sector if the electricity is sourced from renewable energies. The “Power” section of this profile elaborates on the pathways for decarbonisation of Morocco’s power sector.