The majority of Italy’s emissions come from its transport sector, followed by the power sector as the second highest emitting sector. Power sector emissions peaked in 2004 and decreased by around 33% between 1990 and 2019.⁶

Transport (25% of total GHG emissions), power (22%) and buildings (19%) were the main sources of emissions in Italy’s energy sector in 2019.²

While Italy’s transport emissions peaked in 2007 and have been declining since, they have nevertheless increased 3.2% in 2019 compared to 1990 levels. The EU’s mandatory emissions reduction targets under the EU’s effort sharing regulation (ESR) and tightened emissions standards can be credited for aiding in the prevention of increasing transport sector emissions, though the economic slowdown following 2009 has had a large impact as well.⁷ The modest increase reflects the rise in usage of personal vehicles and air transport for mobility needs.¹⁶ The industry sector’s emissions have also fallen from 1990 levels as a result of the economic slowdown in 2009 following the global financial crisis, that was further exacerbated in 2013 by a recession in the Italian economy.^8,9

Under the EU’s ESR, Italy has a binding emissions reduction target of 33% below 2005 levels by 2030 for sectors including transport, buildings and agriculture. Under the EU’s ‘Fit for 55′ package proposal, Italy’s ESR goal is set to be revised to 43.7% below 2005 levels, although the scope of the ESR sector is still being defined under the package.¹⁰

¹ Government of Italy. Plan for the Ecological Transition. 2021.

² Ministry of the Economy and Finance of the Republic of Italy. Annex to the Economics and Finance Document 2021. 2021.

³ Group of Seven. Carbis Bay G7 Summit Communiqué. GOV.UK. 2021.

⁴ Government of Italy. STRATEGIA ITALIANA DI LUNGO TERMINE SULLA RIDUZIONE DELLE EMISSIONI DEI GAS A EFFETTO SERRA. 2021.

⁵ ACEA. 2022 Progress Report – Making the transition to zero-emission mobility. 2022.

⁶ EEA. EEA greenhouse gas data viewer. European Environmental Agency Data Viewer 2021. (Accessed: 25th January 2021)

⁷ European Commission. Road transport: Reducing CO2 emissions from vehicles. 2020. Available at: ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_de. (Accessed: 15th January 2020)

⁸ Government of Italy. Italy. 2020 National Inventory Report (NIR). (2020).

⁹ Instituto Superior per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale. Indicators of efficiency and the decarbonization of the national energy system and the power sector. 2022.

¹⁰ European Commission. Commission Staff Working Document Impact Assessment Report. 2021.

¹¹ Eurostat. Final energy consumption by sector – Italy. 2022.

¹² International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. 2021. Available at: www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tables?country=ITALY. (Accessed: 2nd February 2020)

¹³ European Commission. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT Assessment of the final national energy and climate plan of Italy. 2020.

¹⁴ Government of Italy. Executive Summary- National long-term strategies: Italy. 2021.

¹⁵ European Commission. 2050 long-term strategy. 2021. Available at: ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en. (Accessed: 18th May 2021)

¹⁶ Government of Italy. Italian Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan. 2019.

¹⁷ European Commission. Italy draft national energy and climate plan. 29–30. 2019.

¹⁸ IEA. Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecasts to 2026. 2021.

¹⁹ Reuters. Italy clinches gas deal with Algeria to temper Russian reliance. Reuters. Available at: www.reuters.com/business/energy/italy-signs-deal-with-algeria-increase-gas-imports-2022-04-11/ (2022).

²⁰ ISPRA. Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2019. 2021.

²¹ Government of Italy. Italian Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2020: National Inventory Report 2022. 2022.

²² IEA. Global EV Data Explorer. IEA. 2022.

²³ World Bank. GDP per capita (current LCU). The World Bank. 2021.

²⁴ Gazzetta Ufficiale Della Repubblica Italiana. Decreto Del Presidente Del Consiglio Dei Ministri 6 Aprille 2022. Riconoscimento degli incentivi per l’acquisto di veicoli non inquinanti. 2022.

²⁵ See assumptions here: 1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#ita-ndc

²⁶ Electric or hybrid vehicles with off-vehicle charging, powered by methane and hydrogen, and electricity and methane in the case of buses.

²⁷ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available, thus we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.