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Israel Sectors

What is Israelʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions from the Israeli transport sector rose by 126% between 1990 and 2019. The growth can be attributed to a continued dominance of fossil fuel vehicles alongside a large increase in private car ownership.10

To put the sector on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, it needs to move from the dependence on oil towards electrification. While models provide a conservative deployment of electricity in the region, by 2030, the share of electricity in transport could be between 2–13%, increasing to 43–63% by 2050. Depending on the pathway, hydrogen can supplement electrification. The share of biofuels is expected to remain small until 2030, accounting for 1–3% of the energy mix. However, the biofuel share could grow to 11–29% by 2050 under 1.5°C compatible pathways.

As a small and densely populated country, Israel has significant potential to uptake electric vehicles (EVs) as the necessary charging infrastructure can be rolled out relatively quickly. The government has announced that 100% of new car sales must be EVs from 2030, an ambitious and commendable goal.13 Alongside the increase in the number of EVs, significant investments in public transport are needed to decarbonise the transport sector.

1 Government Of Israel. National Action Plan on Climate Change. 2021.

2 Gütschow, J. et al. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. Earth System Science Data vol. 8 2016.

3 Arlosoroff, M. Israel’s Population Is Growing at a Dizzying Rate. Is It Up for the Challenge? HAARETZ. 2021.

4 Israel. UPDATE OF ISRAEL’S NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT. UNFCCC. 2021. Preprint at unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/NDC%20update%20as%20submitted%20to%20the%20UNFCCC.docx

5 Ivanova, A. Israel devises plan for 40% renewables in 2030. Renewables Now. 2022.

6 Surkes, S. The sun is shining, so why isn’t Israel making hay of its solar energy? The Times of Israel. 2021.

7 Ministry of Environmental Protection. The Finance Committee discussed the framework of a pricing mechanism on carbon, following a government decision on the issue. 2021.

8 Ministry of Environmental Protection. Ministry unveils new waste strategy that is both environmental and economic. 2021.

9 Ministry of Energy. The Israeli government set to approve an unprecedented decision mandating that by the year 2050 Israel will move to a low carbon emissions economy, while dealing with the climate crisis that threatens all of humanity. 2021.

10 Accelerating Climate Action in Israel. OECD, 2020. doi:10.1787/fb32aabd-en.

11 Brode, B. Green construction is the new standard in Israel. The Times of Israel. 2022.

12 Ministry of Environmental Protection. ISRAEL’S THIRD NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE. UNFCCC. 2018. Preprint at unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UNFCCC%20National%20Communication%202018.pdf (2018).

13 Schmidt, B. Israel unveils plans to go 100 per cent electric by 2030. The Driven. 2018.

Israelʼs energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050200
SSP1 High CDR reliance
2019203020402050200
Low energy demand
2019203020402050200
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Israelʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
510152019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Israel

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised transport sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
18
10 to 12
7 to 8
2 to 6
2055 to 2066
Relative to reference year in %
−44 to −32%
−64 to −54%
−92 to −67%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
0
2 to 13
17 to 39
43 to 63
Share of biofuels
Percent
0
1 to 3
7
11 to 29
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
0 to 16
4 to 47
25 to 57

Footnotes