The share of fossil gas in the power sector has in the past ten years grown steadily, and gas has overtaken coal as the most prominent fuel. In 2019, 95% of Israel’s power sector relied on fossil fuels, two thirds on gas and one third on coal. Only 5% of Israel’s power was generated from renewables.
Israel’s commitment to phase out coal-fired power generation by 2026 is an important step in the right direction. However, the government’s plans to increase the use of gas to replace coal are not in line with the 1.5°C temperature goal. Also the current target to increase the share of renewable energy to 40% by 20303 falls well short of the 68–83% share needed to be Paris Agreement compatible.
Israel aims to reduce power sector emissions by 30% by 2030 below 2015 levels. Our analysis of 1.5˚C compatible pathways shows that carbon intensity of the sector would need to fall by 77–81% by 2030 below 2015 levels.
The government currently aims to reduce power sector emissions by 85% below 2015 by 2050, while 1.5°C compatible pathways show that the sector could be fully decarbonised already by 2040.9 A full decarbonisation of the sector will require gas to be phased out by 2040, and the share of renewable energy to reach 100% by 2050. The government need to more strongly commit to moving the power sector from fossil fuels to renewable energy to get on track to meeting the country’s climate commitments.
1 Government Of Israel. National Action Plan on Climate Change. 2021.
2 Gütschow, J. et al. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. Earth System Science Data vol. 8 2016.
3 Arlosoroff, M. Israel’s Population Is Growing at a Dizzying Rate. Is It Up for the Challenge? HAARETZ. 2021.
4 Israel. Updated of Israel’s Nationally Determined Contribution Under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC. 2021. Preprint at unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/NDC%20update%20as%20submitted%20to%20the%20UNFCCC.docx
5 Ivanova, A. Israel devises plan for 40% renewables in 2030. Renewables Now. 2022.
6 Surkes, S. The sun is shining, so why isn’t Israel making hay of its solar energy? The Times of Israel. 2021.
7 Ministry of Environmental Protection. The Finance Committee discussed the framework of a pricing mechanism on carbon, following a government decision on the issue. 2021.
8 Ministry of Environmental Protection. Ministry unveils new waste strategy that is both environmental and economic. 2021.
9 Ministry of Energy. The Israeli government set to approve an unprecedented decision mandating that by the year 2050 Israel will move to a low carbon emissions economy, while dealing with the climate crisis that threatens all of humanity. 2021.
10 Accelerating Climate Action in Israel. OECD, 2020. doi:10.1787/fb32aabd-en.
11 Brode, B. Green construction is the new standard in Israel. The Times of Israel. 2022.
12 Ministry of Environmental Protection. ISRAEL’S THIRD NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE. UNFCCC. 2018. Preprint at unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UNFCCC%20National%20Communication%202018.pdf (2018).
13 Schmidt, B. Israel unveils plans to go 100 per cent electric by 2030. The Driven. 2018.
Israelʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Israelʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Israel
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 480 | 90 to 110 | 0 to 10 | −20 to 0 | 2040 to 2041 |
Relative to reference year in % | −81 to −77% | −100 to −99% | −104 to −100% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2029 |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 64 | 9 to 14 | 0 to 1 | 0 | 2040 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 5 | 68 to 83 | 98 to 99 | 99 to 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 95 | 17 to 32 | 0 to 1 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Israelʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Israel to be on the order of USD 2 to 6 billion by 2030 and 4 to 9 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.