1.5°C compatible pathways
2030 Ambition
In its NDC that was updated in 2021, Israel commits to reducing its emissions by 27% by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, including LULUCF.2
A 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions reduction target for Israel would be 37% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF. The majority of emissions reductions will need to occur in the power and transport sectors, as these are the biggest emitters in Israel. The energy sector as a whole accounted for more than 76% of Israel’s total GHG emissions in 2019.2
To do its fair share of global emissions reduction efforts in line with the Paris Agreement, Israel would need to provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.
Long term pathway
Israel intends to cut its emissions by 85% below 2015 levels by 2050 (including LULUCF emissions), or an emissions level of 12 MtCO₂e by 2050.2 To be 1.5°C compatible, Israel’s emissions would need to be 78–86% below 2015 levels excluding LULUCF, or in absolute terms around 11–18 MtCO₂e in 2050. As land sinks are negligible in Israel, the country will need to either reduce emissions even beyond this level or rely on carbon dioxide removal approaches to reach net zero GHG. Our analysis indicates that CO₂ emissions could reach zero by 2050 under 1.5°C compatible pathways.
1 Government Of Israel. National Action Plan on Climate Change. 2021.
2 Gütschow, J. et al. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. Earth System Science Data vol. 8 2016.
3 Arlosoroff, M. Israel’s Population Is Growing at a Dizzying Rate. Is It Up for the Challenge? HAARETZ. 2021.
4 Israel. Updated of Israel’s Nationally Determined Contribution Under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC. 2021. Preprint at unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/NDC%20update%20as%20submitted%20to%20the%20UNFCCC.docx
5 Ivanova, A. Israel devises plan for 40% renewables in 2030. Renewables Now. 2022.
6 Surkes, S. The sun is shining, so why isn’t Israel making hay of its solar energy? The Times of Israel. 2021.
7 Ministry of Environmental Protection. The Finance Committee discussed the framework of a pricing mechanism on carbon, following a government decision on the issue. 2021.
8 Ministry of Environmental Protection. Ministry unveils new waste strategy that is both environmental and economic. 2021.
9 Ministry of Energy. The Israeli government set to approve an unprecedented decision mandating that by the year 2050 Israel will move to a low carbon emissions economy, while dealing with the climate crisis that threatens all of humanity. 2021.
10 Accelerating Climate Action in Israel. OECD, 2020. doi:10.1787/fb32aabd-en.
11 Brode, B. Green construction is the new standard in Israel. The Times of Israel. 2022.
12 Ministry of Environmental Protection. ISRAEL’S THIRD NATIONAL COMMUNICATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE. UNFCCC. 2018. Preprint at unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UNFCCC%20National%20Communication%202018.pdf (2018).
13 Schmidt, B. Israel unveils plans to go 100 per cent electric by 2030. The Driven. 2018.
Israelʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
Considering the energy sector’s 78% share of Israel’s total emissions, its decarbonisation will be critical to meeting Israel’s obligations under the Paris Agreement. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that renewables could account for 29–55% of the primary energy mix by 2030, with this share increasing to 84–92% by 2050.
The use of fossil fuels needs to decline at the same time as the share of renewables increases. In 2019, fossil fuels accounted for 97% of Israel’s primary energy mix. 1.5°C compatible pathways suggest that this share needs to drop to 45–69% by 2030 and to 5–7% by 2050.
Israelʼs primary energy mix
petajoule per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Israelʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Israel. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2015 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 80 | 82 | 51 44 to 55 | 27 19 to 29 | 16 11 to 18 | 2068 |
Relative to reference year in % | −37% −45 to −32% | −66% −76 to −64% | −80% −86 to −77% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 63 | 62 | 42 32 to 44 | 16 7 to 22 | 6 0 to 12 | 2062 2050 to 2070 |
Relative to reference year in % | −33% −48 to −30% | −74% −89 to −65% | −91% −100 to −81% |