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Indonesia Sectors

What is Indonesiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

The total primary energy consumption of the transport sector in Indonesia has been steadily increasing, from 0.45 EJ in 1990 to 2.27 EJ in 201924, and now consumes around 34% of the total primary energy. Emissions from transport accounted for 27% of Indonesia’s energy-related CO₂ emissions as, with a 95% share, the sector is dominated by oil.23,24

In all our analysed scenarios, fossil energy demand from transport sector peaks by 2020-2025 and declines thereafter. One of the scenarios is showing a fossil fuel phase-out from the transport sector by 2060. A Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires a rapid electrification of the transport sector, which could reach 23-48% by 2050 of energy consumption. In our analysis, all scenarios except one show a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions intensity of the transport sector to 83-100 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, and 14-26 MtCO₂/yr by 2050, from a 2019 level of 150 MtCO₂/yr. Correspondingly, an increased share of hydrogen and biofuel, of 36-58% and 15-50.6%, respectively, is requires by 2050 under different scenarios.

Indonesia is currently providing a policy push for its transport sector transition. The Electric Vehicles Development Plan and General Plan of National Energy, published in 2017, projects that 2200 fully electric and 700,000 hybrid cars and two million electric two-wheelers will be on the road by 2025.27 This is underwritten by various schemes that provide support to deal with the high upfront costs of electric vehicles, while increasing a biofuel blending mandate from a current rate of 30% to 40% by 2022. This is not sustainable as the production of palm oil – the main biofuel used – is strongly linked to deforestation and peat land destruction.28 Indonesia is also increasing the connectivity with integrated public transportation such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), MRT, LRT, traffic management technologies, and urban railway systems.23

Indonesiaʼs energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
Low Energy Demand
20192030204020502 000
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020502 000
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Coal
  • Natural gas
  • Biomass
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Indonesiaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demands)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
5010015019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • Low Energy Demand
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and direct electrification rates from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised transport sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
150
83 to 100
46 to 59
14 to 26
2055 to 2058
Relative to reference year in %
−44 to −33%
−69 to −61%
−91 to −82%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
0
6 to 7
13 to 14
23 to 48
Share of biofuels
Percent
7
5 to 17
10 to 28
15 to 50
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
1 to 20
21 to 55
36 to 58

Footnotes