The total primary energy consumption of the transport sector in Indonesia has been steadily increasing, from 0.45 EJ in 1990 to 2.27 EJ in 201924, and now consumes around 34% of the total primary energy. Emissions from transport accounted for 27% of Indonesia’s energy-related CO₂ emissions as, with a 95% share, the sector is dominated by oil.^23,24

In all our analysed scenarios, fossil energy demand from transport sector peaks by 2020-2025 and declines thereafter. One of the scenarios is showing a fossil fuel phase-out from the transport sector by 2060. A Paris Agreement compatible pathway requires a rapid electrification of the transport sector, which could reach 23-48% by 2050 of energy consumption. In our analysis, all scenarios except one show a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions intensity of the transport sector to 83-100 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, and 14-26 MtCO₂/yr by 2050, from a 2019 level of 150 MtCO₂/yr. Correspondingly, an increased share of hydrogen and biofuel, of 36-58% and 15-50.6%, respectively, is requires by 2050 under different scenarios.

Indonesia is currently providing a policy push for its transport sector transition. The Electric Vehicles Development Plan and General Plan of National Energy, published in 2017, projects that 2200 fully electric and 700,000 hybrid cars and two million electric two-wheelers will be on the road by 2025.²⁷ This is underwritten by various schemes that provide support to deal with the high upfront costs of electric vehicles, while increasing a biofuel blending mandate from a current rate of 30% to 40% by 2022. This is not sustainable as the production of palm oil – the main biofuel used – is strongly linked to deforestation and peat land destruction.²⁸ Indonesia is also increasing the connectivity with integrated public transportation such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), MRT, LRT, traffic management technologies, and urban railway systems.²³

¹ Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. November 2021 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

² Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021).

³ Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Low Carbon Development : A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia. (2019).

⁴ Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT Climate Governance Series. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

⁵ Climate Action Tracker. Coal Phase Out and Energy Transition Pathways. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

⁶ Climate Action Tracker. How a COVID-19 recovery with less coal could benefit Indonesia. Climate Action Tracker. (2021).

⁷ Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. September 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

⁸ Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).

⁹ BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).

¹⁰ OEC. Indonesia. Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). (2019).

¹¹ Rahman, D. F. PLN pledges carbon neutrality by 2050 . The Jakarta Post (2021).

¹² Development Bank, A. Indonesia Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map – Update. (2020).

¹³ Kharina, A. et al. Biofuels Policy in Indonesia: Overview and Status Report. (2016).

¹⁴ Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT Scaling Up Climate Action Series. Climate Action Tracker. (2019).

¹⁵ World Resource Institute. CAIT Paris Contributions Map – Explore Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).

¹⁶ NDC-Indonesia. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution-Republic of Indonesia. (2021).

¹⁷ Hans Nicholas Jong. Indonesia says no new coal plants from 2023 (after the next 100 or so). (2021).

¹⁸ Ministry of Energy Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia. Indonesia’s Effort to Phase Out and Rationalise Its Fossil-Fuel Subsidies A self report on the G-20 peer review of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption in Indonesia. (2019).

¹⁹ Ministry of Research. and H. E. Indonesia Center of excellence for ccs and ccus. 2017.

²⁰ Reuters. Indonesia carbon capture storage projects could need $500 mln, official says. Reuters. (2021).

²¹ Fuentes, U. et al. Decarbonising South & South East Asia – Country Profile – Indonesia. (2019).

²² Climate Action Tracker. Paris Agreement Compatible Sectoral Benchmarks: Elaborating the decarbonisation roadmap. Climate Action Tracker. (2020).

²³ Climate Transparency. Indonesia. Climate Transparency Country Profile. (2021).

²⁴ IEA. Indonesia. International Energy Agency. (2021).

²⁵ PIK. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. (2021).

²⁶ IEA. E4 Country Profile: Energy Efficiency Indonesia. (2021).

²⁷ Saputra, G. & Simanjuntak, U. The Need for Supportive Policy for the Indonesian Electric Vehicle Development. (2021).

²⁸ ICCT. The hidden cost of Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate to consumers. International Council on Clean Transportation. (2017).

²⁹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

³⁰ Fossil fuel with CCS in the power sector are very likely to emit at the very least a tenth of the average emissions compared with an installation without CCS and therefore cannot be considered a zero or low-carbon technology. Costs of CCS in the power sector have remained stagnant over the last decade. CCS technologies in the power sector also have a non-trivial sustainability footprint in terms of increased water use, higher fossil resource demands and consequential mining and production footprint, and in general do not address local air pollution concerns. The CCS technologies are also uncertain regarding security of storage over very long periods of time and the need for legal structure to allow it to happen.