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Indonesia Sectors

What is Indonesiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In Indonesia, the industrial sector makes up 37% of direct CO₂ emissions and has the highest share in primary energy demand at 36.4% in 2019.23,24 While its energy demand has been volatile since 2008, it has steadily increased since 1990 at an annual rate of 6.4% reaching 36% in 2019.24 Analysed scenarios show that in 1.5°C compatible pathway share of electricity in industry will increase in the range of 18-20% by 2030 and 45-56% by 2050 from 2019 level of 14%. All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions to 75-79 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, and 14-15 MtCO₂/yr by 2050 from 2019 level of 180 MtCO₂/yr. This decline will mostly be driven by increased energy efficiency.

The sectoral primary energy demand is heavily dominated by fossil fuels (75% in 2019), comprising of coal 42%, oil 11% and natural gas 22% in 2019. All scenarios show peaking of fossil energy demand by 2025-2030, and a declining trend after that to reach 14-54% share by 2050.

The share of industrial process emissions is 6.3% of total emissions excluding LULUCF (59 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019), increasing since 1990.25 All scenarios except one show a declining trend of process emissions from 2025, reaching up to -3 to 57 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.

Energy efficiency improvements in Indonesia constitute an important intervention for industrial energy conservation as better energy efficiency prevented 8% of additional energy use between 2010 and 2018.26 Additionally, structural change of the economic activities from energy intensive manufacturing to the less energy intensive service sector has contributed significantly to emissions reduction, particularly in the period 2014-18.26 As a part of industrial emissions intensity reduction policy Indonesia is set to expand its biofuel blending mandate beyond transport sector for industries also.

Indonesiaʼs energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020504 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020504 000
Low Energy Demand
20192030204020504 000
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020504 000
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Coal
  • Natural gas
  • Biomass
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Indonesiaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demands)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
05010015020019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • Low Energy Demand
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance

Indonesiaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

020406019902010203020502070
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low Energy Demand
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and direct electrification rates from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Indonesia

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised industry sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
180
75 to 79
36
14 to 15
2046 to 2050
Relative to reference year in %
−59 to −56%
−80%
−92%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
14
18 to 20
31 to 40
45 to 56
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
Percent
25
35 to 47
47 to 87
57 to 96

Footnotes