Energy consumption of buildings in Indonesia accounted for 3.8% of direct CO₂ emissions and 20.7% of indirect CO₂ emissions in 2019.²³ However, total final energy consumption of residential building sector peaked in 2007 and since then has declined by 43% by 2019.²⁴ During the same period, residential electricity demand has increased by around 120%. In 2019, the residential and commercial building sector in Indonesia consumed 20% of total primary energy and around 39% of electricity consumption.²⁴

1.5°C compatible pathways show that the share of electricity in buildings’ energy mix could reach 54-76% in 2030, and 92-95% by 2050, under different scenarios. All scenarios see a rapid decline in emission intensity of the building sector to 17-22 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 and 5-7 MtCO₂/yr by 2050, from a 2019 level of 25 MtCO₂/yr. The decline is mostly driven by an increased electrification rate with high share of renewables in power mix and increased energy efficiency.

Traditionally, the use of solid biomass (palm oil residue) remains significant as a cooking fuel, representing an energy demand of around 38% in 2019 for building sector. All analysed scenarios demonstrate a rapid decline in the demand for solid biomass, reaching 2-25% by 2050, however the share of oil in primary energy demand which was 25% in 2019, peaked /should have peaked in 2020 and start to decline after that under all analysed scenarios except one.

Indonesia is implementing green building standards for both commercial and residential buildings in three major cities, as well as mandatory Energy Performance Certificates for new commercial buildings. Considering the growing urban space of Indonesia, extending these policies for both residential buildings will be an important intervention in reducing emissions from the building sector. Some policies needed to be introduced for the retrofitting of the old buildings also.

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² Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021).

³ Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Low Carbon Development : A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia. (2019).

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²⁰ Reuters. Indonesia carbon capture storage projects could need $500 mln, official says. Reuters. (2021).

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²⁹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

³⁰ Fossil fuel with CCS in the power sector are very likely to emit at the very least a tenth of the average emissions compared with an installation without CCS and therefore cannot be considered a zero or low-carbon technology. Costs of CCS in the power sector have remained stagnant over the last decade. CCS technologies in the power sector also have a non-trivial sustainability footprint in terms of increased water use, higher fossil resource demands and consequential mining and production footprint, and in general do not address local air pollution concerns. The CCS technologies are also uncertain regarding security of storage over very long periods of time and the need for legal structure to allow it to happen.