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Ambition gap

What is Indonesiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

Indonesia’s updated NDC reiterates its 2015 target pledges stated in its 2015 NDC of an unconditional emissions reduction of 29% below business as usual (BAU) levels, and a conditional contribution of 41% below BAU by 2030.1

Indonesia’s conditional NDC would result in an increase in GHG emissions excluding land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) of 99-100% above 2015 levels by 2030.1 Modelled pathways show that, to be 1.5°C compatible, emissions excluding LULUCF need to decrease 30-48% below 2015 levels by 2030 (between 435-581 MtCO₂e per year until 2030). Achieving an emissions sink from the LULUCF sector however is critical to achieving a Paris Agreement compliant target, corresponds to a reduction of around 84-89% below 2030 including LULUCF or 63-75% below 2015 levels.14

Indonesia will very likely meet its NDC targets under current policies. This is primarily due to the very high emissions baseline scenario used for the basis of the NDC target definition meaning that the country will likely achieve its targets without any additional efforts while still doubling its emissions (excl. LULUCF).

While Indonesia’s current policies would allow for emissions far above from its “fair share” range as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, the country will need to receive international support to close the gap between its fair share and domestic emissions pathway.1

Long term pathway

Indonesia is one of the few developing countries to publish its ‘long-term strategy for low carbon and climate resilience 2050’. While it aims at reaching net zero by 2060, the level of emissions reduction under its “long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP) remain insufficient compared to analysed 1.5°C compatible models here.2

According to Bappenas, Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency, a more ambitious emission reduction pathway leading to net zero emissions by 2045 would be economically and socially beneficial.3

1.5°C compatible pathways show that by 2050, GHG emissions excluding LULUCF could be reduced to 150-216 MtCO₂e/yr or 74-82% below 2015 levels, driven primarily through emissions reductions in the energy sector, but also in waste and agriculture.29 The remaining emissions would need to be balanced through the use of negative emissions such as land sinks up to -216 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050. This stands in contrasts with Indonesia’s long-term strategy which would still allow emissions to increase by 2050, by around 1% compared to 2015 levels.2

Avoiding the need for negative emissions at this scale would need faster decarbonisation in the other energy-using sectors. In addition, reaching larger shares of renewables earlier would reduce reliance on negative emissions technologies in the second half of the century under a 1.5°C domestic pathway. The land use sector is important in Indonesia, and emissions from LULUCF could be brought to zero by around 2030 and become an emission sink thereafter leading to net zero GHG including LULUCF being achieved from around 2040.14

1 Climate Action Tracker – Indonesia. (2021).

2 Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021).

3 Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Low Carbon Development : A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia. (2019).

4 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Governance Series_Indonesia. (2021).

5 Climate Action Tracker. COAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS. (2021).

6 Climate Action Tracker. How a COVID-19 recovery with less coal could benefit Indonesia. (2021).

7 Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT September 2020 Update. (2020).

8 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).

9 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).

10 , O. of E. C. OEC Indonesia country page. Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). (2019).

11 Rahman, D. F. PLN pledges carbon neutrality by 2050 . The Jakarta Post (2021).

12 Development Bank, A. Indonesia Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map – Update. (2020).

13 Kharina, A. et al. BIOFUELS POLICY IN INDONESIA: OVERVIEW AND STATUS REPORT. (2016).

14 Climate Action Tracker. Scaling Up Climate Action: Indonesia. Climate Action tracker. (2019).

15 World Resource Institute. CAIT Paris Contributions Map – Explore Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).

16 NDC-Indonesia. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution-Republic of Indonesia. (2021).

17 Hans Nicholas Jong. Indonesia says no new coal plants from 2023 (after the next 100 or so). (2021).

18 Ministry of Energy Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia. Indonesia’s Effort to Phase Out and Rationalise Its Fossil-Fuel Subsidies A self report on the G-20 peer review of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption in Indonesia. (2019).

19 Ministry of Research. and H. E. Indonesia Center of excellence for ccs and ccus. 2017.

20 Reuters. Indonesia carbon capture storage projects could need $500 mln, official says | Reuters. (2021).

21 Fuentes, U. et al. Decarbonising South & South East Asia – Country Profile – Indonesia. (2019).

22 Climate Action Tracker. Paris Agreement Compatible Sectoral Benchmarks: Elaborating the decarbonisation roadmap. (2020).

23 Climate Transperancy. Climate Transperancy Country Profile-Indonesia. (2021).

24 IEA. Indonesia. International Energy Agency. (2021).

25 PIK. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. (2021).

26 IEA. E4 Country Profile: Energy Efficiency Indonesia. (2021).

27 Saputra, G. & Simanjuntak, U. The Need for Supportive Policy for the Indonesian Electric Vehicle Development. (2021).

28 ICCT. The hidden cost of Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate to consumers | International Council on Clean Transportation. (2017).

29 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

30 Fossil fuel with CCS in the power sector are very likely to emit at the very least a tenth of the average emissions compared with an installation without CCS and therefore cannot be considered a zero or low-carbon technology. Costs of CCS in the power sector have remained stagnant over the last decade. CCS technologies in the power sector also have a non-trivial sustainability footprint in terms of increased water use, higher fossil resource demands and consequential mining and production footprint, and in general do not address local air pollution concerns. The CCS technologies are also uncertain regarding security of storage over very long periods of time and the need for legal structure to allow it to happen.

Methodology

Indonesiaʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−50%0%50%100%19902010203020502070
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−47%
NDC (conditional)
+98%
NDC (unconditional)
+116%
Ambition gap
−144%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
2030 emissions levels
Current policy projections
NDC (conditional)
1.5°C emissions level
Ref. year 2015
840MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system transformation

The energy sector will need to contribute the largest emissions reductions to 2030, through a shift from fossil energy use to zero and near-zero carbon sources. This will require a reduction of the current 73% share of coal, oil and natural gas use in the primary energy mix to be 45-75% 2030, and around 6-57% by 2050.

To enable this reduction, Indonesia would need to considerably scale up renewable energy sources, from less than a quarter of all primary energy in 2019 to over two-thirds by 2050. This means an increase in absolute terms from 2.5 EJprimary in 2019 to 1.5–6 EJprimary in 2050. The lower value in this range would be consistent with the Paris Agreement only if nuclear power or fossil energy with CCS technology were to be introduced at significant scale in Indonesia’s power and industry sectors, reaching a share in primary energy of up to 22% by 2030 and 37% by 2050. Neither technology exists in the country today. To be on 1.5°C compatible pathway if Indonesia depends on CCS and nuclear, developments of these technologies would need to start imminently for completion within this timeframe, which seems very unlikely. Fossil energy with CCS is not currently viable anywhere globally. Both fossil energy with CCS and nuclear energy also have serious sustainability concerns and are not expected to be able to compete with renewable energy in economic terms. Indonesia’s National Action Plan on Climate Change recognised that CCS could contribute up to 40% of the targeted energy sector’s emission reductions. CCS is gaining attention in the country as Indonesia’s state owned oil and natural gas company, Pertamina is planning to install CCS facilities installation in two of its oil and gas fields.19,20

The power sector would see a complete phase-out of coal from around 2030 with a small amount (<<0.5 EJprimary) being used in other sectors until around 2040.21 Gas would phase out from power from around 2035, drawing down across all sectors towards the end of the century.

Methodology

Indonesiaʼs primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
201920302040205010 00015 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
201920302040205010 00015 000
Low Energy Demand
201920302040205010 00015 000
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
201920302040205010 00015 000
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Renewables incl. Biomass
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS

Indonesiaʼs total CO₂ emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

−200020040060019902010203020502070
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Indonesia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference year
Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero GHG
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
840
933
449
397 to 579
263
245 to 314
199
174 to 210
2069
Relative to reference year in %
−47%
−53 to −31%
−69%
−71 to −63%
−76%
−79 to −75%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
565
631
292
263 to 356
159
61 to 184
42
16 to 94
2063
2053
Relative to reference year in %
−48%
−53 to −37%
−72%
−89 to −67%
−93%
−97 to −83%

Footnotes