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What is Indonesiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Ambition gap

Indonesiaʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

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Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−50%0%50%100%19902010203020502070
Net zero GHG excl. LULUCF*
2070
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−45%
NDC (conditional)
+99%
NDC (unconditional)
+118%
Ambition gap
−144%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions

*Net zero emissions excl LULUCF is achieved through deployment of BECCS; other novel CDR is not included in these pathways

Summary

Indonesia’s updated 2021 NDC reiterates its pledges stated in its first NDC, of an unconditional emissions reduction of 29% below business as usual (BAU) levels and a conditional contribution of 41% below BAU by 2030.1

1 Climate Action Tracker – Indonesia. (2021).

2 Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050. Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050 (Indonesia LTS-LCCR 2050). (2021).

3 Kementerian PPN/Bappenas. Low Carbon Development : A Paradigm Shift Towards a Green Economy in Indonesia. (2019).

4 Climate Action Tracker. COAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS. (2021).

5 Climate Action Tracker. How a COVID-19 recovery with less coal could benefit Indonesia. (2021).

6 Climate Action Tracker. Indonesia. CAT September 2020 Update. (2020).

7 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).

8 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).

9 , O. of E. C. OEC Indonesia country page. Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). (2019).

10 Rahman, D. F. PLN pledges carbon neutrality by 2050 . The Jakarta Post (2021).

11 Development Bank, A. Indonesia Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map – Update. (2020).

12 Kharina, A. et al. BIOFUELS POLICY IN INDONESIA: OVERVIEW AND STATUS REPORT. (2016).

13 Climate Action Tracker. Scaling Up Climate Action: Indonesia. Climate Action tracker. (2019).

14 World Resource Institute. CAIT Paris Contributions Map – Explore Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs).

15 NDC-Indonesia. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution-Republic of Indonesia. (2021).

16 Hans Nicholas Jong. Indonesia says no new coal plants from 2023 (after the next 100 or so). (2021).

17 Ministry of Energy Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia. Indonesia’s Effort to Phase Out and Rationalise Its Fossil-Fuel Subsidies A self report on the G-20 peer review of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption in Indonesia. (2019).

18 Fuentes, U. et al. Decarbonising South & South East Asia – Country Profile – Indonesia. (2019).

19 Climate Action Tracker. Paris Agreement Compatible Sectoral Benchmarks: Elaborating the decarbonisation roadmap. (2020).

20 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

21 Fossil fuel with CCS in the power sector are very likely to emit at the very least a tenth of the average emissions compared with an installation without CCS and therefore cannot be considered a zero or low-carbon technology. Costs of CCS in the power sector have remained stagnant over the last decade. CCS technologies in the power sector also have a non-trivial sustainability footprint in terms of increased water use, higher fossil resource demands and consequential mining and production footprint, and in general do not address local air pollution concerns. The CCS technologies are also uncertain regarding security of storage over very long periods of time and the need for legal structure to allow it to happen.

Indonesia’s conditional NDC would result in an increase in GHG emissions excluding land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) of 99-100% above 2015 levels by 2030.1

1.5°C compatible pathways would require Indonesia to peak and decline its GHG emissions immediately, and reach 30-48% reductions below 2015 by 2030. Between this and its current target there is an emissions gap of close to 1.3 GtCO₂e/yr in 2030.

While Indonesia’s current policies would allow emissions far above its “fair share” range as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, the country will need to receive international support to close the gap between its fair share and domestic emissions pathway.1

Indonesia’s long-term strategy, released in July 2021, aims to peak emissions in 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060 or sooner.1,2

Compared to this long-term strategy, Bappenas, Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency, proposed a more ambitious emission reduction pathway leading to net zero emissions by 2045 which would be economically and socially beneficial.3

Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that by 2050 GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, could be reduced to 150-215 MtCO₂e/yr or 82-74% below 2015 levels, driven primarily through emissions reductions in the energy sector, but also in waste and agriculture.20 This contrasts with Indonesia’s long-term strategy’s “long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP), which would still allow an increase in emissions of around 1% compared to 2015 levels by 2050.2

LULUCF emissions will play a major role in the country’s trajectory to reach net zero. Indonesia will need to implement stringent policies to reduce deforestation. In 2016, land use sector accounted for 43% of Indonesia’s total emissions, as a result from extensive deforestation for agriculture.

Power

Key power sector benchmarks

Renewables shares and year of zero emissions power Including the use of BECCS

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1.5°C aligned targets
Current targets

The most readily available technologies for decarbonisation at Indonesia’s disposal are renewables. 1.5°C compatible pathways show that renewables in the power sector would need to reach 67-73% by 2030 and 98-100% by 2050.

A high uptake of renewables could bring down the emissions intensity of electricity to 106-176 gCO₂/kWh by 2030 from current levels of 538 gCO₂/kWh, which will support Indonesia aligning with a 1.5oC compatible pathway, and reduce the reliance on negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Indonesia plans to retire coal-fired power plants that are over 20 years old and stop building new coal-fired plants after 2023.4 Indonesia’s government owned only electricity distribution company Perusahaan Listrik Negara’s (PLN) has committed to generate carbon neutral electricity by 2050. However, Indonesia’s huge coal pipeline of over 30 GW of coal-fired power capacity, which is under construction, remains a concern. 1.5°C pathways would require coal to be phased out by 2030, followed by gas between 2035 and 2038.5

Indonesia’s plan relies on CCS technologies to reduce emissions from fossil fuels, with a target to equip 76% of its coal power plants capacity with CCS. Given the costs and uncertainty of CCS technology at scale, it would be a safer bet to develop renewable technologies.2,21

Footnotes