Indonesia’s updated 2021 NDC reiterates its pledges stated in its first NDC, of an unconditional emissions reduction of 29% below business as usual (BAU) levels and a conditional contribution of 41% below BAU by 2030.
Indonesia’s conditional NDC would result in an increase in GHG emissions excluding land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) of 99-100% above 2015 levels by 2030.
1.5°C compatible pathways would require Indonesia to peak and decline its GHG emissions immediately, and reach 30-48% reductions below 2015 by 2030. Between this and its current target there is an emissions gap of close to 1.3 GtCO₂e/yr in 2030.
While Indonesia’s current policies would allow emissions far above its “fair share” range as assessed by the Climate Action Tracker, the country will need to receive international support to close the gap between its fair share and domestic emissions pathway.
Indonesia’s long-term strategy, released in July 2021, aims to peak emissions in 2030 and achieve net zero by 2060 or sooner.,
Compared to this long-term strategy, Bappenas, Indonesia’s National Development Planning Agency, proposed a more ambitious emission reduction pathway leading to net zero emissions by 2045 which would be economically and socially beneficial.
Our analysis of 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that by 2050 GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, could be reduced to 150-215 MtCO₂e/yr or 82-74% below 2015 levels, driven primarily through emissions reductions in the energy sector, but also in waste and agriculture. This contrasts with Indonesia’s long-term strategy’s “long term Paris compatible scenario” (LCCP), which would still allow an increase in emissions of around 1% compared to 2015 levels by 2050.
LULUCF emissions will play a major role in the country’s trajectory to reach net zero. Indonesia will need to implement stringent policies to reduce deforestation. In 2016, land use sector accounted for 43% of Indonesia’s total emissions, as a result from extensive deforestation for agriculture.