France targets emissions reductions of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, which translates to 329 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF by 2030.
France’s national target stands far from a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway. It would need to reduce domestic emissions by 62% from 1990 levels to levels of 210 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030, excluding LULUCF, to be 1.5°C compatible, leaving an ambition gap of around 120 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030.
The lack of stringent policies, notably in transport and buildings, the largest emitting sectors in the country, sets the country to miss its national target. This has led the French Council of State – the highest judicial authority in France – to order the government to align policies with the current target by 2022 and compensate for emissions above budget]
A full fair share contribution to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement would require France to go further than its domestic emissions target, and provide substantial support for emission reductions to developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.
France’s long-term strategy aims at reaching net zero GHG by 2050 – with a level of sinks from the land sector of around -80 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 to balance remaining emissions from other sectors, mostly agriculture. France’s net zero target was signed into law in 2019.
Our analysis shows that for France to be 1.5°C compatible, emissions would need to be 92% below 1990 levels by 2050, excluding LULUCF, and would need to balance residual emissions with removals not higher than 47 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 – close to half of the residual emissions the country is aiming for by mid-century.