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Current situation

What is Egyptʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

The energy sector is Egypt’s highest emitting sector, as the country is still highly dependent on fossil fuels. The power sector makes up the largest share of energy emissions (30%), followed by transport (16%) and industrial energy use (12%). Industry processes and agriculture make up the next highest shares of total emissions, followed by waste.

Egypt’s total emissions fell from 2011 to 2014, coinciding with economic recession following the 2011 and 2013 revolutions.1 The reductions came entirely from the energy sector, with energy emissions falling 9%. During this period, Egypt suffered from a slowdown in natural gas production resulting in severe fuel shortages and power outages.2 Egypt’s economy and emissions have since rebounded, with energy emissions increasing 8% from 2014 to 2017. While the impact of COVID-19 on emissions is not yet clear, Egypt’s economy maintained positive growth in 2020 even as the regional economy in Africa contracted by 1.9%, maintaining positive growth in 2021.3

1 Ministry of Environment. Egypt’s First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2018).

2 Meighan, B. Egypt’s Natural Gas Crisis. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2016).

3 IMF. World Economic Outlook Update: April 2021. (2021).

4 Fahmy, H. Will the lights stay on in Egypt? Middle East Institute. (2020).

5 European Commission. New era in EU-Egypt energy cooperation. (2018).

6 Magdy, M. Egypt in Talks Over Plan to Sell Power to Europe and Africa. Bloomberg Quint. (2020).

7 Arab Republic of Egypt. Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030. (2016).

8 IRENA. Renewable Energy Outlook Egypt: Executive Summary. (2018).

9 New and Renewable Energy Authority. Renewable Energy Targets.-

10 Global Energy Monitor. Map. Global Coal Plant Tracker

11 Target does not specify reference value.

12 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

13 In some of the analysed pathways, the power sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

14 Note that the model High Energy Demand shows a slight decline in electricity consumption between 2020 and 2030 mainly due to modelling artefacts. Consistency with national context: The significant gap between the starting year of the first generation of scenarios of the IPCC SR1.5 used in this analysis and the present has at times led to distortions when downscaling these scenarios to the national level.

15 WRI‘s report, State of Climate Action, 2021.

Egyptʼs current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

By sector

  • Power
  • Transport
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Buildings
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Other
  • Agriculture
  • Industry (processes)
  • Waste
  • LULUCF
Energy (68%)0

By gas

  • CO₂
  • CH₄
  • N₂O
  • Other
074%0

Sectors by gas

Energy
096%0
Agriculture
00
Industry (processes)
074%0

Energy system

As one of the top natural gas producers, Egypt’s primary energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels, with natural gas contributing 55% and oil contributing 37% in 2019. The remaining supply is a mix of coal (3%), biomass (4%) and other renewables (2%).

Egypt relies heavily on natural gas for electricity generation (about 77%). Remaining generation is supplied by oil (13%) and renewables (9%), mostly hydropower, followed by wind, solar, and bioenergy. Egypt’s growing power demand and decline in gas production following the 2011 revolution led to power and fuel shortages from 2011 to 2014. With the construction of new capacity, natural gas discoveries, and sector reform Egypt now has a surplus of power capacity with plans to export electricity.46

Egypt’s Vision 2030 set targets for their electricity mix in 2030. The strategy targets a significant increase in coal (to 29% of the power mix) and renewables (35%), the development of nuclear power (9%), and falling shares of oil and gas (27%).7,8 Egypt’s Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) sets electricity mix targets for 2035; however, at COP26, the government announced that the ISES target for 42% renewable energy in the power mix has been moved forward to 2030.

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Other

NDC target

Conditional NDC

  • Egypt’s NDC indicates action only. No target outcome is identified.
  • States the needs for financial support from Annex I parties in addition to technology transfer and local capacity building.

Market mechanism

  • “A national market for carbon trading may be established. This national market may further be developed into a regional market, which can attract foreign direct investment in national carbon credit transactions, especially in the Arab and African region.”

Long-term target

  • No long-term target.

Sector coverage

EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF

Sectoral targets

Energy

Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030

  • Eliminate fuel subsidies by 2020.

Transport

Measures stated in NDC:

  • Energy efficiency improvements.
  • Increase Share of Railways Pass. Transport.
  • Increase Share of Buses Pass. Transport.
  • Increase Share of Microbuses Pass. Transport.
  • Increase Share of River Pass. Transport.
  • Cairo metro (Line 3 phase 3& 4 + Line 4).
  • Improve road transport efficiency.
  • Switch from road to river transport.
  • Switch from road to rail transport.

Waste

Measures stated in NDC:

  • Solid waste
  • Wastewater
  • Incineration

Agriculture

Measures stated in NDC:

  • Enteric fermentation
  • Manure management
  • Rice cultivation
  • Agricultural soils
  • Field burning of agricultural residues

Power

Measures stated in NDC:

  • Energy efficiency improvements.
  • Nuclear energy use for power generation.
  • Renewable energy use for power generation.

Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030

  • 10% decline in energy sector GHG emissions.11
  • Power generation mix in 2030:
    • Oil and Gas: 27%
    • Hydroelectricity: 5%
    • Solar: 16%
    • Wind: 14%
    • Coal: 29%
    • Nuclear: 9%

Buildings

Measures stated in NDC:

  • Energy efficiency improvements.
  • Utilisation of solar energy for water heating.

LULUCF

Measures stated in NDC:

  • “Additional mitigation measures include the increase of the country’s CO₂ absorptive capacity through plantation, maintaining suitable types of trees along road sides, the middle-island of inter-city and urban roads, and on irrigation and drainage canal banks. In addition, wood forests should use treated wastewater for irrigation.”

Footnotes