Power sector in 2030
As of 2019, Ecuador produced 78% of its power from renewable sources, with hydropower accounting for the majority of power production at 76%.3 Ecuador has never used coal in its power sector, but oil plays a significant role and accounted for roughly 18% of power production in 2019.3 Ecuador had previously set a target of achieving 90% renewable power supply by 20219, however, it is still far off that mark. The country has not yet set further renewable energy targets, although the government is currently drafting a long-term mitigation strategy and a national energy plan through 2050.2,8 A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Ecuador to reach at least a 98% share of non-biomass renewable power already by 2030 and 100% by 2040 at the latest. In its recent announcement of updates to the Master Electricity Plan through 2031, the government has indicated its intent to install 670 MW of wind and 490 MW of solar capacity between 2024–2028.10–12
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Ecuador’s power sector could be fully decarbonised by 2033 at the latest according to the 1.5°C compatible pathways. The decarbonisation will need to be driven by a phase-out of unabated fossil gas from the power sector by around 2030. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources in the power sector could reach at least 98% by 2030 and 100% by 2040. Ecuador will need international support to increase investment in and installation of, non-hydro renewable power supply such as solar and wind, rather than continuing to maintain fossil gas and fuel oil alongside minor increases in hydropower and geothermal power as its current policy states.4 Slower uptake of renewable energy will require greater use of carbon removals technologies later to compensate. Scenarios under which the country does not reach 100% renewable power by 2040 require between 0.6–1.6 TWh/year of removals from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in the same year.
1 Ministerio del Ambiente del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidad sobre Cambio Climático. Gobierno de Ecuador 1–44. 2019.
2 Plan Nacional de Mitigación del Cambio Climático (PLANMICC). Climaton.ec. 2021.
3 International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA Country Report: Ecuador. 2020.
4 MERNNR. Plan Maestro de Electricidad 2019-2027. MERNNR Ministerio de Energía y Recursos No RenovablesMinisterio de Energía y Recursos No Renovables 390. 2019.
5 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Primer Informe Bienal de Actualización de Ecuador. 2016.
6 Meta en Ecuador para depender menos del petróleo aún no se alcanza. El Universo. 2019.
7 Gobierno de Ecuador. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático del Ecuador 2012-2025. vol. 148. 2012.
8 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). MINISTERIO DE ENERGÍA INICIÓ LA ELABORACIÓN DEL PLAN ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL DEL ECUADOR PROYECTADO AL 2050. Boletín de prensa. 2021.
9 Secretaría Nacional de Planificación y Desarrollo (Ecuador). Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2017-2021-Toda una Vida. 84. 2017.
10 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). Ecuador actualiza su Plan Maestro de Electricidad para impulsar inversiones en Energías Renovables No Convencionales por cerca de USD 2.200 Millones. Boletín de Prensa. 2021.
11 Energía Estratégica. Ecuador anuncia convocatorias para construir más de 1000 MW de energías renovables. Energía Estratégica. 2021.
12 Alvarado, P. Plan de electricidad busca captar inversiones por cerca de USD 2 200 millones. El Comercio. 2021.
13 Cristina, P. M. A. Análisis del Plan Nacional de Eficiencia Energética en el Ecuador. REVISTA RIEMAT 5, 28–34. 2020.
14 Ministerio de Ambiente del Ecuador. Ecuador’s forest reference emission level for deforestation. REDD UNFCCC Submissions 59. 2015.
15 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Bosques Para el Buen Vivir: Plan de Acción REDD+ Ecuador 2016-2025. 2016.
16 Ministerio del Ambiente y Agua del Ecuador. Plan de Implementación de la primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional del Ecuador 2020-2025 (PI-NDC). Preprint at www.ambiente.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2022/02/Plan-de-Implementacion-NDC-2020-2025.pdf (2021).
17 República del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático. Preprint at www.ambiente.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2022/02/Primera-NDC-Ecuador-2020-2025.pdf (2019).
Ecuadorʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Ecuadorʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ecuador
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 150 | 0 to 10 | −10 to 0 | −10 to 0 | 2025 to 2033 |
Relative to reference year in % | −100 to −94% | −106 to −100% | −106 to −100% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2025 to 2028 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 78 | 99 to 100 | 100 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 22 | 0 to 1 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Ecuadorʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Ecuador to be on the order of USD 1 to 3 billion by 2030 and USD 2 to 7 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.