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Ecuador Current situation

What is Ecuadorʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

The energy sector, which includes all energy use across the economy, is responsible for the majority of Ecuador’s total GHG emissions. The sector accounted for 69% of total emissions in 2019. Transport is the most emitting sector at 34%, due to the overwhelming reliance on oil-based fuels. The power and industry sectors also still use a high proportion of fuel-oil and fossil gas for energy.4 Emissions in the agricultural sector, which account for 19% of total emissions, stem mainly from agricultural soils and livestock enteric fermentation.5 The 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here show that Ecuador could reduce its total emissions to between 49–57 MtCO₂e by 2025 which would be 1.5°C compatible.

1 Ministerio del Ambiente del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidad sobre Cambio Climático. Gobierno de Ecuador 1–44. 2019.

2 Plan Nacional de Mitigación del Cambio Climático (PLANMICC). Climaton.ec. 2021.

3 International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA Country Report: Ecuador. 2020.

4 MERNNR. Plan Maestro de Electricidad 2019-2027. MERNNR Ministerio de Energía y Recursos No RenovablesMinisterio de Energía y Recursos No Renovables 390. 2019.

5 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Primer Informe Bienal de Actualización de Ecuador. 2016.

6 Meta en Ecuador para depender menos del petróleo aún no se alcanza. El Universo. 2019.

7 Gobierno de Ecuador. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático del Ecuador 2012-2025. vol. 148. 2012.

8 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). MINISTERIO DE ENERGÍA INICIÓ LA ELABORACIÓN DEL PLAN ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL DEL ECUADOR PROYECTADO AL 2050. Boletín de prensa. 2021.

9 Secretaría Nacional de Planificación y Desarrollo (Ecuador). Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2017-2021-Toda una Vida. 84. 2017.

10 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). Ecuador actualiza su Plan Maestro de Electricidad para impulsar inversiones en Energías Renovables No Convencionales por cerca de USD 2.200 Millones. Boletín de Prensa. 2021.

11 Energía Estratégica. Ecuador anuncia convocatorias para construir más de 1000 MW de energías renovables. Energía Estratégica. 2021.

12 Alvarado, P. Plan de electricidad busca captar inversiones por cerca de USD 2 200 millones. El Comercio. 2021.

13 Cristina, P. M. A. Análisis del Plan Nacional de Eficiencia Energética en el Ecuador. REVISTA RIEMAT 5, 28–34. 2020.

14 Ministerio de Ambiente del Ecuador. Ecuador’s forest reference emission level for deforestation. REDD UNFCCC Submissions 59. 2015.

15 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Bosques Para el Buen Vivir: Plan de Acción REDD+ Ecuador 2016-2025. 2016.

16 Ministerio del Ambiente y Agua del Ecuador. Plan de Implementación de la primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional del Ecuador 2020-2025 (PI-NDC). Preprint at www.ambiente.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2022/02/Plan-de-Implementacion-NDC-2020-2025.pdf (2021).

17 República del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático. Preprint at www.ambiente.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2022/02/Primera-NDC-Ecuador-2020-2025.pdf (2019).

Ecuadorʼs current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

By sector

  • Transport
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Other
  • Buildings
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Power
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
  • Industry (processes)
  • LULUCF
Energy (70%)0

By gas

  • CO₂
  • CH₄
  • N₂O
  • Other
061%0

Sectors by gas

Energy
083%0
Agriculture
064%0
Industry (processes)
092%0

Energy system

Ecuador’s energy system overall still largely depends on fossil fuels, particularly in the industry and transport sectors which are primarily oil-dependent. Fossil fuels made up 83% of Ecuador’s total primary energy supply (TPES) in 2019, with oil alone accounting for 80%.3 The power sector is less dependent on fossil fuels with 78% renewable power generation in 2019, although oil still accounts for roughly 17% of power generation.3 The majority (76%) of renewable energy generation in Ecuador comes from hydropower, while solar and wind energy both still account for less than 1%.6 This share will need to be increased as quickly as possible to remain on a 1.5°C compatible pathway. The government has announced its plans to revise its Master Plan for Electricity 2019–2027 and in this context indicated its intention to continue relying on hydropower for the majority of the energy sector emissions reductions, including through adding 1200 MW of hydropower capacity generation in 2027. However, the government also projects a gradual increase for the use of gas, fuel oil and diesel in the power mix.4

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Baseline scenario target

NDC target

Unconditional NDC Target:

  • As expressed by the country: 9% below BAU scenario by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1
  • Re-expressed excluding LULUCF below selected baseline: 2% above 2015 emission levels by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).

Conditional NDC Target:

  • As expressed by the country: 20.9% below BAU scenario by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1
  • Re-expressed excluding LULUCF below selected baseline: 8% below 2015 emission levels by 2025 (excl. LULUCF).

Long-term target

The Ecuadorian government is currently in the process of designing its National Plan for the Mitigation of Climate Change (PLANMICC) which will extend the mitigation targets set out in its first NDC over a longer time horizon, with the objective of “decarbonising” by 2050.2

Sector coverage

EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF

Greenhouse gas coverage

CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂O

Sectoral targets

Energy

  • In its National Climate Change Strategy 2012–2025 (ENCC), Ecuador indicates that the hydroelectric, wind and solar projects will help to mitigate energy emissions over the planning horizon, reducing emissions an estimated 8 MtCO₂e, 0.082 MtCO₂e and 0.1 MtCO₂e by 2025, respectively.7
  • The government estimates energy efficiency improvements to mitigate 0.4 MtCO₂e by 2025.7
  • The government started drafting its National Energy Plan 2050 (PEN 2050) in March 2021.8

Buildings

  • The National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016–2035 (PLANEEE) sets a target to reduce total cumulative energy consumption from the buildings sector by 88.8 Mboe by 2035 through energy efficiency measures.13

Waste

  • In its 2019 NDC, Ecuador indicates its intention to pursue greater capture and usage of biogas from waste, but doesn’t provide estimates of the waste sector’s mitigation potential nor the implementation of the activities so far.1

LULUCF

  • In its 2019 NDC and REDD+ Strategy 2016–2025, Ecuador lists a separate mitigation target for the LULUCF sector, with the aim to reduce LULUCF emissions by 20% compared to the official Forest Reference Emissions Level of 43 MtCO₂e in 2008.1,14,15 This corresponds to maximum LULUCF emissions of 35 MtCO₂e in 2025.

Power

  • The National Development Plan 2017–2021 set a target of 90% renewable power generation by 2021, but this target has not yet been achieved.9
  • Since the initial release of the updated Master Electricity Plan through 2031, the government has indicated greater efforts towards non-hydro renewables with plans to install over 1000 MW of renewable energy capacity between 2025–2028. Most recently, it expanded this target to around 1400 MW by 2031.1012

Transport

  • The RENOVA Program under Ecuador’s ENCC aims to reduce transport sector emissions by 0.01 MtCO₂e per year through the modernisation of the country’s automotive fleet with more efficient technologies.7
  • The National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016–2035 (PLANEEE) targets a cumulative reduction in energy use of 339.6 Mboe between 2015–2035.

Agriculture

  • In their 2019 NDC, Ecuador mentions implementing improved, sustainable fishing practices to reduce emissions from the sector, yet did not give any estimation of its mitigation potential nor additional mitigation measures.1

Footnotes