To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, Ecuador would need to reduce emissions by 24% compared to 2015 levels by 2025, equivalent to absolute emissions of 49 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF. By 2030, Ecuador would need to reduce emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2015 levels, equivalent to absolute emissions of 37 MtCO₂e. Ecuador will need international support to decarbonise in line with the assessed 1.5°C pathways.
Ecuadorʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
Reference year
Net zero GHG excl. LULUCF*
2065
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−46%
NDC (unconditional)
+2%
NDC (conditional)
−8%
1.5°C compatible pathways
Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
Current policy projections
1.5°C emissions range
Historical emissions
Conditional NDC
Ecuador’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) sets an emissions reduction target of 20.9% by 2025 compared to a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Such reduction would lead to an emissions level of 63 MtCO₂e in 2025 (excl. LULUCF).1 This is equivalent to an emissions reduction of around 8% compared to 2015 levels. This target is conditional on international support.
1 Ministerio del Ambiente del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidad sobre Cambio Climático. Gobierno de Ecuador 1–44. 2019.
4MERNNR. Plan Maestro de Electricidad 2019-2027. MERNNR Ministerio de Energía y Recursos No RenovablesMinisterio de Energía y Recursos No Renovables 390. 2019.
5 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Primer Informe Bienal de Actualización de Ecuador. 2016.
6 Meta en Ecuador para depender menos del petróleo aún no se alcanza. El Universo. 2019.
7 Gobierno de Ecuador. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático del Ecuador 2012-2025. vol. 148. 2012.
Ecuador has already decarbonised a significant portion of its power sector, with 78% of power already generated from renewable sources in 2019, though the country missed its target of having 90% of its power supply come from renewables by 2021.3
The share of renewable energy would need to increase to at least 98% by 2030 for the power sector to be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway. Furthermore, the country needs to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas.
Coal is not used in Ecuador’s power sector, however, gas still accounted for roughly 4% and oil for roughly 17% of the country’s power production in 2019.3
Fossil gas would need to be phased out of the power sector by 2028 at the latest and the overall emissions intensity of the power sector would need to reach zero by 2033 at the latest.
Industry sector emissions increased steadily from the turn of the century, until they peaked in 2014. The sector’s emissions represented 8% of Ecuador’s total GHG emissions in 2019.
By 2040, around 90% of the sector’s energy demand will need to come from electricity, hydrogen and biomass for it to be 1.5°C compatible.