Ecuador’s current conditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aims to reduce emissions by 20.9% compared to its business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2025, resulting in emissions level of 63 MtCO₂e/yr in 20251. This is equivalent to a 7% emissions reduction compared to 2015 levels.
In contrast, Ecuador would need to reduce emissions by around 48% compared to 2015 levels, equivalent to absolute emissions of 35 MtCO₂e/yr, by 2025 to be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway.
With international support, Ecuador will be able to implement its domestic emissions pathway, and close the gap between its fair share level and its 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions level.
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require Ecuador to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions excluding land use and forestry (LULUCF) by around 88% by 2050 below 2015 levels. The key sector requiring rapid decarbonisation is the energy sector, with the greatest opportunities for decarbonisation in the power and transport sectors, as these will help drive CO₂ emissions reductions.
To increase land sinks to balance remaining emissions, the country will need to significantly reduce its LULUCF emissions which accounted for almost half of CO₂ emissions in 2010.
As of January 2022, Ecuador has not announced a long-term emissions reduction pathway nor any indicative targets for reaching net zero emissions.