To be compatible with the Paris Agreement, Czechia’s 2030 emissions would need to be reduced to 54-70 MtCO₂e/yr. This translates to a 53-64% reduction below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF).
Czech Republicʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Czechia’s per capita emissions are the third highest in the EU and it is the bloc’s only member state in which emissions are increasing.1
1 European Environment Agency. EEA greenhouse gases – data viewer. 2021.
2 Government of Czech Republic. National Energy and Climate Plan of the Czech Republic. 2019.
3 IEA. World Energy Balances 2020. 2020.
4 Government of Czechia. Czechia.2021 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. 2021.
5 Mahe, S. France, Czech Republic and others push for nuclear in EU’s green investment rules. Reuters. 2021.
6 International Energy Agency (IEA). Czech Republic 2021: Energy Policy Review. 2021.
7 Gilbert, A., Sovacool, B. K., Johnstone, P. & Stirling, A. Cost overruns and financial risk in the construction of nuclear power reactors: A critical appraisal. Energy Policy 102, 644–649. 2017.
8 Eash-Gates, P. et al. Sources of Cost Overrun in Nuclear Power Plant Construction Call for a New Approach to Engineering Design. Joule 4, 2348–2373. 2020.
9 Ministry of the Environment of the Czech Republic. Climate Protection Policy of the Czech Republic: Executive Summary 2017. 2017.
10 European Commission. Assessment of the final national energy and climate plan of Czechia. 2020.
11 Ember. Vision or division?: what do National Energy and Climate Plans tell us about the EU power sector in 2030? 2020.
12 Government of Czech Republic. The Czech Republic’s Hydrogen Strategy. 2021.
13 McKinsey & Company. Pathways to decarbonize the Czech Republic: Carbon-neutral Czech Republic 2050. 2020.
14 Ponikelska, L. Czech Leader Demands Big Changes to EU Green Deal Over Cars. Bloomberg. 2021.
Czechia’s current 2030 target, as set in its National Energy and Climate Plan, is a 30% reduction below 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF), which translates to an emissions level of 105 MtCO₂e/yr. This target would need to be roughly doubled to be 1.5°C compatible.
Czechia has set a target of reducing total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 80% compared to 1990 levels by 2050. In absolute terms, this corresponds to a maximum GHGs emissions level of 39 MtCO₂e/yr. 1.5°C compatible pathways show that Czechia’s GHGs emissions excluding LULUCF in 2050 should be 0-19 MtCO₂e/yr, or around 87-100% below 2005 levels.
Due to the large share of emissions coming from energy supply, reforming the energy mix through a phase out of fossil fuels along with an increase in low-carbon technologies will be critical to decarbonisation.
- Coal continues to play a major role in the Czech power sector. In order to be aligned with the Paris Agreement, this would need to be phased out by 2029, with a fossil gas phase-out occurring well before 2040.
- The share of renewables in the power sector would need to increase to 49-61% by 2030. Czechia is currently aiming for a 17% share of renewables in the sector by 2030, meaning its ambition is significantly short of what it is needed to be 1.5°C compatible.
- According to current and planned policies, in 2030 Czechia will have one of the dirtiest grids in the EU and rank at the very bottom for its share of renewable energy.
- Electricity’s share of final energy in the buildings sector would need to reach 61-68% by 2050 to be 1.5°C compatible, with the sector being fully decarbonised by between 2038-2050.
- Improved energy efficiency through renovating poorly insulated buildings, combined with the phasing out of gas and coal boilers, are some of the measures that could help decarbonise this sector.
- Analysed 1.5°C pathways show that direct CO₂ emissions from Czechia’s industry sector could reach zero between 2034-2038. This could be achieved by replacing fossil fuels with renewable-based electricity, hydrogen, and biomass.
- Czechia’s government has outlined a commitment to improve energy efficiency in industry production processes, with projections of a 2% reduction in industry final energy demand between 2020-2030, but does not have a sectoral emissions reduction target.2
- Emissions from the transport sector are growing faster than any other sector in Czechia. In 2019, transport emissions were 66% above 1990 levels. They need to be reduced by 47-80% by 2030 to align with 1.5°C pathways.
- Current policies indicate it is unlikely that Czechia will meet the EU’s target of a 14% share of renewable energy sources in the transport sector by 2030.2