Emissions profile
In 2014, most of China’s emissions were due to energy use (77%). Within this broad category, CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion for heat and power (33% of total GHG emissions) and for industry (26% of total GHG emissions) made up the lion’s share. With regards to non-CO₂ emissions, the combined CH₄ and N₂O in the agriculture sector made up 8% of total emissions. Fugitive emissions from the energy sector were also a large source of CH₄.
Although China’s total emissions (excluding LULUCF) grew on average 7% year-on-year between 2000 and 2013 (with growth peaking in 2003 at 14%), they have grown more slowly in recent years. This decline in emissions growth is particularly noticeable in industrial energy use, which has experienced negative rates, primarily driven by energy efficiency gains due to technological improvement and optimisation of industrial infrastructure.5,6
Current policy projections indicate that by 2030, China’s emissions will grow by 72-78% above 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF.2
1 The People’s Republic of China. China’s Achievements, New Goals and New Measures for Nationally Determined Contributions. 2021.
2 Climate Action Tracker. China. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
3 Yvonne Deng, Ursula Fuentes, Hare, B., Welder, L. & Gidden, M. U.S. and China Climate Goals : Scenarios for 2030 and Mid-Century. 2020.
4 Climate Action Tracker. China. May 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
5 Liu, Q. et al. Pathway and policy analysis to China’s deep decarbonization. Chinese J. Popul. Resour. Environ. 15, 39–49 (2017).
6 Zheng, X. et al. Drivers of change in China’s energy-related CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 117, 29–36 (2020).
7 IEA. Key World Energy Statistics. 2021.
8 Bahr, A. China’s coal capacity surge need not be at odds with ambitious climate action. China Dialogue. 2020.
9 Myllyvirta, L., Zhang, S. & Shen, X. Analysis: Will China build hundreds of new coal plants in the 2020s? Carbon Brief. 2020).
10 Global Energy Monitor et al. Boom and Bust Coal 2022. 2022.
11 Climate Action Tracker. New momentum reduces emissions gap, but huge gap remains – analysis. Climate Action Tracker. 2021.
12 Reuters. China to cut coal use share below 56% in 2021. Reuters. 2021.
13 Wang, C. N. Brief: Coal phase-out in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): an analysis of Chinese-backed coal power from 2014-2020. 2021.
14 Wang, C. N. China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment report 2021. Green BRI Center, International Institute of Green Finance (IIGF). 2022.
15 Kusmer, A. China launches world’s largest carbon market. PRI. 2021.
16 Farand, C. China launches world’s largest carbon market for power sector. Climate Home News. 2021.
17 Jinping, X. Full Text: Remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping at Leaders Summit on Climate. Xinhuanet. 2021.
18 Xinhua. China unveils plan for new energy vehicle industry. Xinhuanet. 2021.
19 Lutsey, N., Cui, H. & Yu, R. Evaluating Electric Vehicle Costs and Benefits in China in the 2020 – 2035 Time Frame. 2021.
20 Liu, H., Liu, J. & You, X. Q&A: What does China’s 14th ‘five year plan’ mean for climate change? Carbon Brief. 2021.
21 Xu, M. & Singh, S. China cuts ‘carbon intensity’ 18.8% in past five years, in effort to rein in emissions. Reuters. 2021.
22 IEA. Coal Information: Overview. 2020.
23 World Resources Institute. Accelerating the Net-Zero Transition: Strategic Action for China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.20.00018.
24 IEA. Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecasts to 2026. 2021.
25 The People’s Republic of China. China’s Mid-Century Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy. 2021.
26 IEA. World Energy Outlook 2021. 2021.
27 Murphy, B. Outline of the People’s Republic of China 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Long-Range Objectives for 2035 (English translation). 2021.
28 Yu, Y. Renewable Energy in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan: Five Changes. Energy Iceberg. 2021.
29 Hu, Y. & Cheng, H. The urgency of assessing the greenhouse gas budgets of hydroelectric reservoirs in China. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 708–712. 2013.
30 Li, S., Zhang, Q., Bush, R. T. & Sullivan, L. A. Methane and CO2 emissions from China’s hydroelectric reservoirs: a new quantitative synthesis. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 22, 5325–5339. 2015.
31 Xie, X., Jiang, X., Zhang, T. & Huang, Z. Regional water footprints assessment for hydroelectricity generation in China. Renew. Energy 138, 316–325. 2019.
32 Yuefang, D. & Steil, S. China Three Gorges Project resettlement: Policy, planning and implementation. J. Refug. Stud. 16, 422–434. 2003.
33 Lewis, C. China’s Great Dam Boom: A Major Assult on Its Rivers. Yale Environment 360. 2013.
34 Yu, Y. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Power Industries (2): No Plans for Wind, Solar & Hydro? Energy Iceberg. 2020.
35 IEA. An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China. 2021.
36 Sandalow, D. Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2019. 2019.
37 Koty, A. C. What is the China Standards 2035 Plan and How Will it Impact Emerging Industries? China Briefing. 2020.
38 China Dialogue. National carbon market expansion may be delayed to 2023. China Dialogue. 2022.
39 The assessment of GDP carbon intensity follows from that conducted in previous analysis but here we have updated data on historical carbon emissions (using the PRIMAP 2021 database), GDP (using Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2021), and GDP growth projections (from World Bank). The GDP growth rate from 2025-2030 is assumed to be 5% p.a.
40 If only covering CO₂, the target would lead to around 2050 MtCO₂e p.a. in 2060 (excluding LULUCF) or emissions reductions of around 75% below 2005 levels. If the target were to cover all GHG emissions, 2060 emissions would be around 600 MtCO₂e p.a. (excluding LULUCF), or around 92% below 2005 levels.3 The 0.1°C of additional warming by 2100 would be a result of the difference in cumulative emissions between an emissions pathway which follow a carbon neutrality target (leading to greater cumulative emissions) versus a GHG neutrality target (leading to less cumulative emissions).
41 Includes electricity and hydrogen. For it to be zero emissions, it would need to be produced out of renewable energies only.
Chinaʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
By sector
- Power
- Industry (energy use)
- Fugitive emissions
- Transport
- Buildings
- Other
- Industry (processes)
- Agriculture
- Waste
- LULUCF
By gas
- CO₂
- CH₄
- N₂O
- Other
Sectors by gas
Energy
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Energy system
China’s energy supply accounts for 23.5% of the global total.7 The country’s primary energy mix consists of 61% coal, 7% fossil gas, 19% oil, 3% nuclear, and 10% renewables (including biomass). The power generation mix is comprised of 65% coal, 2.8% fossil gas, 0.1% oil, 4.7% nuclear, and 27% renewables (including biomass).
China’s continued investment in new coal-fired power plants increases the risk of carbon lock-in and stranded assets.3 This is particularly the case as continued investment in coal comes despite existing coal overcapacity issues.8,9 China’s reliance on coal seemingly shows little sign of decline as the building of new plants is used to boost GDP, and industry groups argue that these plants will be needed to meet future energy demand.9 Between 2000 and 2017, coal has met over 50% of net new electricity demand in 13 out of 18 years. China currently has around 251 GW of coal capacity under development. In 2021 alone, China commissioned 25.2 GW of new coal plants.10
There are, however, some encouraging signs. President Xi Jinping has recently announced that China will begin to phase down coal from 2026.11,12 With regards to overseas financing, China’s investments in coal plants through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have been substantially reduced since peaking in 2015 and 2016. Of the 52 coal plant projects announced between 2014 and 2020, only one has gone into operation (25 have been shelved and eight have been cancelled).13 China did not make any coal investments through the BRI in 2021 but increased support for oil and gas.14
Despite China’s reliance on coal, in recent years renewables have taken on a greater role in the power sector. Between 2016 and 2020, renewables accounted for 64% of new capacity additions. In 2020, China brought 73 GW of wind and 49 GW of solar online. This is about 16% of the country’s total installed renewable generation capacity (including hydro) in 2019 and significantly greater than recent single year net additions.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
NDC target
Unconditional NDC Target:
- Peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
- Non-fossil fuel share in primary energy use: ~ 25% by 2030.
- Forest stock: ~ 6 billion m³ increase over 2005 levels by 2030.
- Increase wind and solar capacity to 1200 GW by 2030.
- Carbon intensity of GDP: over 65% below 2005 by 2030 (role of LULUCF unclear).
- Translates to GHG emissions of 72% – 80% above 2005 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).2
Note: NDC peaking target excludes significant non-CO₂ emissions agriculture, industry, and energy.
Long-term target
- China aims to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, it is unclear whether this target covers all GHGs or only CO₂.3
Sector coverage
EnergyTransportIndustryWasteLULUCFGreenhouse gas coverage
CO₂Sectoral targets
Energy
- NDC: Increase share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%.
- Leader’s summit announcement (April 2021): Coal will be phased down from 2026.17
LULUCF
- NDC: Increase forest stock volume by around 6 billion m³ in 2030 from 2005 levels.