1.5°C compatible pathways
Chile’s conditional NDC targets 61-91 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (or a 19-45% emissions reduction below 2016 levels). While the lower boundary (61 MtCO₂e/yr) is compatible with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the higher end would not put the country on a Paris Agreement compatible trajectory, representing an ambition gap of 24-51 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.
To be on track with 1.5°C pathways, Chile would need to emit 40-67 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, which is 40-64% below 2016 levels when excluding LULUCF sinks. In all scenarios GHG emissions should have peaked by 2020 at the latest. However, Chile is aiming to reach peak emissions in 2025.
Steeper emissions reductions are required to remain aligned with 1.5°C pathways. Some of the most effective measures for rapid emission reductions would be more aggressive substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy, and earlier coal and gas phase out dates.
Long term pathway
In 2050 our analysed policy scenarios show that Chile would emit within a range of 8-20 MtCO₂e, depending on the scenario. Chile has announced its aim to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050, relying on an estimated land carbon sink of -65 MtCO₂e/yr.6 However, Paris compatible pathways show that Chile would need to emit no more than 14 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050. Remaining emissions in 2050 will mainly come from agriculture and waste and would need to be compensated through the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches to the corresponding level of -14 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.12
1 Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Target Update Tracker. (2020).
2 Government of Chile. Chile’s Nationally Determined Contribution – Update 2020. (2020).
3 Ministerio de Energía. Energía 2050: Política Energética de Chile. (2015).
4 PIK. PRIMAP: Paris-Reality Check, Chile. (2016).
5 Gobierno de Chile. Ley de Cambio Climático de Chile. (2021).
6 Ministerio de Energia del Gobierno de Chile. NDC y Plan de Carbono Neutralidad 2050. (2020).
7 International Energy Agency. Country Profile: Chile. (2019).
8 S&P Global Platts. Chile lifts coal imports, but limited by rising natural gas supplies | S&P Global Platts. (2019).
9 Gobierno de of Chile. Presidente Piñera presentó plan para cerrar todas las centrales energéticas a carbón para que Chile sea carbono neutral. 4 de Junio (2019).
10 EBP Chile. Estudio de Movilidad Eléctrica en Chile. (2018).
11 La Tercera. El plan que busca convertir a Chile en el segundo país con más buses eléctricos del mundo. Electricidad. La revista energetica de Chile. (2018).
12 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
Chileʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
Chile’s primary energy mix is currently dominated by fossil fuels at around 70% in 2017. This will need to approximately halve by 2030, with some 1.5°C pathways showing a fossil fuel share of less than 5% remaining in 2040.
Different approaches could be taken to decarbonise the energy mix: the extensive deployment of renewable energy to achieve 100% renewables and avoid the need for carbon dioxide removals (CDR) and nuclear, or a lower penetration of renewable energy, which would require an increasing use of CDR technologies to compensate emissions from remaining fossil fuels.
A close to 100% share of renewable energies by 2050, would mean increasing its share of Chile’s energy mix to 46-53% in 2030. A lower penetration of renewable energy would result in a higher dependence on CDR, which could reach up to 80% when not considering non-energy fossil fuel demand.
Chileʼs primary energy mix
petajoule per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Renewables incl. Biomass
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
Chileʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Chile. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2016 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero GHG incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 110 | 113 | 64 52 to 71 | 29 12 to 36 | 11 4 to 19 | 2057 2052 |
Relative to reference year in % | −42% −53 to −36% | −74% −89 to −67% | −90% −96 to −83% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 86 | 88 | 50 32 to 55 | 14 −7 to 23 | −2 −9 to 3 | 2049 2038 to 2062 |
Relative to reference year in % | −42% −63 to −37% | −83% −108 to −73% | −103% −111 to −96% |