Chile’s conditional NDC targets 61-91 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 (or a 19-45% emissions reduction below 2016 levels). While the lower boundary (61 MtCO₂e/yr) is compatible with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the higher end would not put the country on a Paris Agreement compatible trajectory, representing an ambition gap of 24-51 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030.
To be on track with 1.5°C pathways, Chile would need to emit 40-67 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030, which is 40-64% below 2016 levels when excluding LULUCF sinks. In all scenarios GHG emissions should have peaked by 2020 at the latest. However, Chile is aiming to reach peak emissions in 2025.
Steeper emissions reductions are required to remain aligned with 1.5°C pathways. Some of the most effective measures for rapid emission reductions would be more aggressive substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy, and earlier coal and gas phase out dates.
Long term pathway
In 2050 our analysed policy scenarios show that Chile would emit within a range of 8-20 MtCO₂e, depending on the scenario. Chile has announced its aim to achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2050, relying on an estimated land carbon sink of -65 MtCO₂e/yr. However, Paris compatible pathways show that Chile would need to emit no more than 14 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF by 2050. Remaining emissions in 2050 will mainly come from agriculture and waste and would need to be compensated through the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches to the corresponding level of -14 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050.