Residential and commercial buildings have consistently been by far the largest consumers of energy in Cameroon (78% of total final consumption in 2019).6 Most of the scenarios we have analysed see an increase in direct CO₂ emissions until 2030 after which they peak and start declining, reaching close to zero by 2040 for some scenarios. The decline is mostly driven by an increase in electricity replacing traditional biomass as a source of energy. From 3% in 2019, electricity share in the buildings sector grows to between 17 to 25% by 2030 and 66 to 81% by 2050. Electricity will help decarbonise the building sector if it is produced from renewable energy sources which it predominantly is in Cameroon (See the power section for details).
The scenario showing a higher reliance on renewable energies indicates that coal and natural gas, both of which play minor roles in the building sector, would need to be phased out by 2040. While some models show an increase in oil consumption, the ones achieving earliest decarbonisation are based on a strong increase of renewables energies combined with biomass and reduction in energy demand lead by increased efficiency of buildings. Though Cameroon’s National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30) does not provide specific targets, it does prioritise the following in the energy sector: (i) developing the important national hydroelectric potential; (ii) developing alternative energies to better respond to specific needs such as cooking, transport, especially urban transport, urban electrification, manufacturing industries, etc.; (iii) strengthening and optimising the use of biomass. Increasing reliable access to electricity and access to clean cooking options would significantly curb household biomass combustion and reduce fossil fuel usage and indoor air pollution.
1 République du Cameroun. Contribution déterminée au niveau national – Actualisée (CDN). 58 (2021).
16 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.