The transport sector in Brazil is the largest source of energy demand, and emissions have continued to increase in recent years, mainly from freight and private vehicles.9 Emissions from road transport constitute a majority of sectoral emissions, despite the fact that Brazil is one of the countries with the highest use of biofuels, with a 25% share in 2019.9
The main policy in the sector, called RenovaBio, aims to increase the use of biofuels, however, these fuels require land to grow their crop feedstocks, leading to increased deforestation, and are resource intensive.13,19
The electric vehicle (EV) market in Brazil is still nascent, but has shown positive growth and is expected to increase to almost a 20% share of car sales by 2030.20 Brazil could increase investment in EV infrastructure and provide incentives for users, to stimulate demand and go beyond this projection.
The 1.5°C scenarios analysed show rapid emissions reduction and reach zero emissions sometime in the 2040s, with electricity’s share of transport final energy demand reaching one to two thirds by 2050. One scenario assumes a low dependence on biofuels but higher use of hydrogen in the sector.
In addition to promoting zero emission vehicles, Brazil could also look into opportunities to reduce the need for car ownership by developing alternatives, such as the improvement of public transport, promoting bike paths and improving mobility in cities.
1 Climate Transparency. Brazil: Climate Transparency Report. 2021.
2 Ministerio de Minas e Energia – MME. Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia. 2021.
3 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Atlas of Energy Efficiency Brazil 2020.
4 Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R. & Günther, A. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). V.2.1. GFZ Data Services (2019) doi:10.5880/PIK.2019.018.
5 Silva Junior, C. H. L. et al. The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 144–145 (2021).
6 IPAM. Amazon records deforestation in the first half of 2022. IPAM Amazonia. 2022.
7 Goverment of Brazil. 4th Biennial update report (BUR) of Brazil. 2020.
8 Climate Action Tracker. Brazil. September 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
9 Ministry of Mines and Energy MME. Brazilian Energy Balance Summary report 2020. 2021.
10 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Plano Decenal de Expansäo de Energia 2031. EPE. 2022.
11 Goverment of Brazil. Brazil NDC update. 2022
12 Federative Republic of Brazil. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC. Preprint at www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Brazil/1/BRAZIL%20iNDC%20english%20FINAL.pdf (2016).
13 Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C. & Ranganathan, J. Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. World Resources Report (2019).
14 Cruz, T., Imperio, M., Baptista, L. B., Angelkorte, G. & Arroyo, E. Plano de descarbonizacao para o Estado de Minas Gerais dentro de um Brazil clima neutro em 2050. Relatorio sintese da modelagem integrada para o Brasil. 2022.
15 Arias, M. E. et al. Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon. Nat Sustain 3, 430–436 (2020).
16 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).
17 Ministerio de minas e Energia. Programa Nacional de Hidrogênio – PNH2. 2022.
18 Henriques, M. & Esturba, T. The role of the industrial sector in Brazil’s energy emissions. WRI Brasil. 2018.
19 Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, G. N. e B. RenovaBio. Ministerio de Minas e Energia. 2022.
20 Carlier, M. Electric and hybrid motor vehicle registrations in Brazil from 2006 to 2021. Statista. 2022.
Brazilʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Brazilʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Brazil
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 194 | 84 to 94 | 4 to 28 | 0 to 1 | 2037 to 2048 |
Relative to reference year in % | −57 to −52% | −98 to −85% | −100 to −99% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 8 to 19 | 22 to 50 | 36 to 71 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 25 | 26 to 59 | 29 to 76 | 31 to 66 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 16 | 4 to 51 | 14 to 53 |