Emissions profile
Brazil’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were 1109 MtCO₂e (excluding LULUCF) and are projected to grow without enhanced decarbonisation policies.4 Agriculture is the largest emitting sector in Brazil, accounting for 45% of total GHGs emission in 2019, followed by the energy sector at 38%.
Agriculture and deforestation are key drivers of emissions in Brazil, as well as the energy sector. Agriculture emissions have been rising over the last couple of decades, with livestock (enteric fermentation and manure) the largest source. Emissions from the land sector, which had been declining from 2003-2010, have risen dramatically over the last decade, driven by an acceleration in deforestation rates.5-7
Emissions in the energy sector peaked in 2014 and have been relatively constant over recent years, but under existing policies are projected to rise over the next decade.8 This is in part due to the planned expansion of gas-powered electricity generation. Emissions from transport, buildings, and industry are also all projected to increase over the next five to ten years.
1 Climate Transparency. Brazil: Climate Transparency Report. 2021.
2 Ministerio de Minas e Energia – MME. Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia. 2021.
3 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Atlas of Energy Efficiency Brazil 2020.
4 Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R. & Günther, A. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). V.2.1. GFZ Data Services (2019) doi:10.5880/PIK.2019.018.
5 Silva Junior, C. H. L. et al. The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 144–145 (2021).
6 IPAM. Amazon records deforestation in the first half of 2022. IPAM Amazonia. 2022.
7 Goverment of Brazil. 4th Biennial update report (BUR) of Brazil. 2020.
8 Climate Action Tracker. Brazil. September 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
9 Ministry of Mines and Energy MME. Brazilian Energy Balance Summary report 2020. 2021.
10 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Plano Decenal de Expansäo de Energia 2031. EPE. 2022.
11 Goverment of Brazil. Brazil NDC update. 2022
12 Federative Republic of Brazil. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC. Preprint at www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Brazil/1/BRAZIL%20iNDC%20english%20FINAL.pdf (2016).
13 Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C. & Ranganathan, J. Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. World Resources Report (2019).
14 Cruz, T., Imperio, M., Baptista, L. B., Angelkorte, G. & Arroyo, E. Plano de descarbonizacao para o Estado de Minas Gerais dentro de um Brazil clima neutro em 2050. Relatorio sintese da modelagem integrada para o Brasil. 2022.
15 Arias, M. E. et al. Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon. Nat Sustain 3, 430–436 (2020).
16 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).
17 Ministerio de minas e Energia. Programa Nacional de Hidrogênio – PNH2. 2022.
18 Henriques, M. & Esturba, T. The role of the industrial sector in Brazil’s energy emissions. WRI Brasil. 2018.
19 Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, G. N. e B. RenovaBio. Ministerio de Minas e Energia. 2022.
20 Carlier, M. Electric and hybrid motor vehicle registrations in Brazil from 2006 to 2021. Statista. 2022.
Brazilʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
By sector
- Transport
- Industry (energy use)
- Other
- Power
- Buildings
- Fugitive emissions
- Agriculture
- LULUCF
- Industry (processes)
- Waste
By gas
- CO₂
- CH₄
- N₂O
- Other
Sectors by gas
Energy
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Energy system
Emissions from the energy sector come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels in transport and industry.
Brazil already has a relatively large share of renewables in its primary energy mix (47% in 2020), mostly biomass, hydro and wind, with a small amount of solar.9 In the power sector, renewables made up 84% of generation in 2020, with gas, coal, nuclear, and oil making up the rest. According to Brazil’s ten-year energy plan, renewables are expected to make up 48% of primary energy and 83% of electricity generation by 2030, with a large growth in distributed solar and biomass power generation and approximately a doubling of centralised wind and solar generation.2
However, the plan also includes a doubling of oil production and an increase in natural gas production. The government’s New Gas Market programme aims to lower gas prices and expand the Brazilian natural gas market, and the government expects gas power generation to double by 2030, to make up 14% of primary energy.10 Such an expansion would slow down Brazil’s power sector decarbonisation.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
NDC target
Unconditional NDC Target:
- 37% reduction by 2025 and 50% reduction by 2030 compared with 2005 levels (incl. LULUCF).11
- 4% increase by 2025 and 5% increase by 2030 compared with 2005 levels (excl. LULUCF).
Market mechanism
- The NDC mentions that the Brazilian government does not rule out the use of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs).
Long-term target
Net zero targets:
- In its last NDC update submitted in April 2022, Brazil’s commitments also include a long-term objective to achieve climate neutrality by 2050.11 No further information is provided on how this will be achieved or specific plans.
- Brazil has not submitted an official Long-term Development Strategy to the UNFCCC.
Sector coverage
EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCFGreenhouse gas coverage
CO₂CH₄HFCsN₂OSF₆Sectoral targets
Energy
Agriculture
- Strengthen the Low Carbon Emissions Agriculture Program (ABC), including by restoring an additional 15 million hectares of degraded pasturelands by 2030 and enhancing 5 million hectares of integrated cropland-livestock-forestry systems by 2030.12
Power
- Increasing the share of non-hydro renewables in power supply to at least 23% by 2030.12
- Achieving 10% efficiency gains in the electricity sector by 2030.
Waste
- National zero methane programme.
- Waste recovery rate of 27% in 2031.
- Growth of the biogas production potential in the sanitation sector of 85% by 2033.
LULUCF
- Reduce illegal deforestation, starting in 2022, by 15% per year until 2024, 40% in 2025 and 2026, and 50% in 2027, reaching the goal of zero illegal deforestation in 2028.
- Restore and reforest 18 million hectares of forests, for multiple uses, by 2030.