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Brazil Ambition gap

What is Brazilʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

To be on a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal, Brazil’s emissions in 2030 would need to be 594-814 MtCO₂e/yr, or 11-35% below 2005 levels, excluding land-use emissions. Brazil’s current NDC targets emissions of 5% above 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF (a 50% reduction including LULUCF), or 962 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. This is not at all in line with the emissions reductions needed to be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

Long term pathway

Brazil’s latest NDC also includes a long-term objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Brazil’s CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) fall to zero by 2050. This would require rapid and extensive decarbonisation of the energy system and potentially the roll-out of carbon dioxide removal measures such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

To be 1.5°C compatible, Brazil should target a GHG emissions levels of 215-331 MtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF), or a reduction of 64-77% below 2005 levels by 2050.

To balance these remaining emissions, Brazil will need carbon sinks. Sinks could either be land-based carbon removal (e.g. reforestation, forest restoration) or through novel carbon removal technologies. If Brazil were to have net removals from LULUCF of about -400 MtCO₂e/yr by 2040 and -700 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, as projected in a report by CDP Latin America with the assumption of reaching zero deforestation by 2030, net zero GHG emissions could be achieved around 2040.14

1 Climate Transparency. Brazil: Climate Transparency Report. 2021.

2 Ministerio de Minas e Energia – MME. Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia. 2021.

3 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Atlas of Energy Efficiency Brazil 2020.

4 Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R. & Günther, A. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). V.2.1. GFZ Data Services (2019) doi:10.5880/PIK.2019.018.

5 Silva Junior, C. H. L. et al. The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 144–145 (2021).

6 IPAM. Amazon records deforestation in the first half of 2022. IPAM Amazonia. 2022.

7 Goverment of Brazil. 4th Biennial update report (BUR) of Brazil. 2020.

8 Climate Action Tracker. Brazil. September 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.

9 Ministry of Mines and Energy MME. Brazilian Energy Balance Summary report 2020. 2021.

10 Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica EPE & Ministerio de Minas e Energia. Plano Decenal de Expansäo de Energia 2031. EPE. 2022.

11 Goverment of Brazil. Brazil NDC update. 2022

12 Federative Republic of Brazil. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution INDC. Preprint at www4.unfccc.int/sites/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Brazil/1/BRAZIL%20iNDC%20english%20FINAL.pdf (2016).

13 Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C. & Ranganathan, J. Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. World Resources Report (2019).

14 Cruz, T., Imperio, M., Baptista, L. B., Angelkorte, G. & Arroyo, E. Plano de descarbonizacao para o Estado de Minas Gerais dentro de um Brazil clima neutro em 2050. Relatorio sintese da modelagem integrada para o Brasil. 2022.

15 Arias, M. E. et al. Impacts of climate change and deforestation on hydropower planning in the Brazilian Amazon. Nat Sustain 3, 430–436 (2020).

16 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).

17 Ministerio de minas e Energia. Programa Nacional de Hidrogênio – PNH2. 2022.

18 Henriques, M. & Esturba, T. The role of the industrial sector in Brazil’s energy emissions. WRI Brasil. 2018.

19 Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, G. N. e B. RenovaBio. Ministerio de Minas e Energia. 2022.

20 Carlier, M. Electric and hybrid motor vehicle registrations in Brazil from 2006 to 2021. Statista. 2022.

Methodology

Brazilʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−50%0%19902010203020502070
Reference year
2005
1.5°C emissions level
−27%
NDC (unconditional)
+5%
Ambition gap
−32%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
2030 emissions levels
Current policy projections
NDC (unconditional)
1.5°C emissions level
Ref. year 2005
917MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system transformation

In a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of renewables in Brazil’s energy sector would need to reach above 60% by 2030. In two of the scenarios analysed, renewables reach close to 100% by mid-century, while fossil fuels are almost entirely phased out by this time.

The Brazilian government expects renewables to make up a 48% share of the primary energy mix by 2030, falling more than 10 percentage points short of what is needed to be 1.5°C aligned.2 A much faster renewables scale-up will be required, especially if energy demand is to grow as planned. While the government foresees a large role for biofuels like ethanol for transport, these fuels require land to grow their crop feedstocks, leading to increased deforestation, and are resource intensive.13 More emphasis will be needed on renewable powered electrification and energy efficiency.

The government’s planned growth in fossil fuel use is not consistent with any 1.5°C compatible pathway. While 1.5°C pathways show a maximum of 4 EJ from non-renewables in 2030, the government’s energy infrastructure plans include 8 EJ by this time, most of which is from oil and gas.2 By 2050, 1.5°C pathways show a very low or negligible level of remaining unabated fossil fuels.

Scenarios that keep fossil fuels in the energy system for longer or have very high energy demand deploy negative CO₂ emissions technologies as early as 2030.

Methodology

Brazilʼs primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
201920302040205010 00015 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
201920302040205010 00015 000
Low energy demand
201920302040205010 00015 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
201920302040205010 00015 000
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Renewables incl. biomass

Brazilʼs total CO₂ emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

−600−400−200020040060019902010203020502070
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Brazil. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference year
Indicator
2005
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
917
1 109
668
594 to 814
413
345 to 562
266
215 to 331
2057
Relative to reference year in %
−27%
−35 to −11%
−55%
−62 to −39%
−71%
−77 to −64%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
383
495
299
209 to 333
90
1 to 148
−34
−101 to 17
2047
2041
Relative to reference year in %
−22%
−46 to −13%
−77%
−100 to −61%
−109%
−126 to −96%

Footnotes