To be on a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal, Brazil’s emissions in 2030 would need to be 594-814 MtCO₂e/yr, or 11-35% below 2005 levels, excluding land-use emissions. Brazil’s current NDC targets emissions of 5% above 2005 levels, excluding LULUCF (a 50% reduction including LULUCF), or 962 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030. This is not at all in line with the emissions reductions needed to be on a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
Long term pathway
Brazil’s latest NDC also includes a long-term objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Brazil’s CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) fall to zero by 2050. This would require rapid and extensive decarbonisation of the energy system and potentially the roll-out of carbon dioxide removal measures such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
To be 1.5°C compatible, Brazil should target a GHG emissions levels of 215-331 MtCO₂e/yr (excluding LULUCF), or a reduction of 64-77% below 2005 levels by 2050.
To balance these remaining emissions, Brazil will need carbon sinks. Sinks could either be land-based carbon removal (e.g. reforestation, forest restoration) or through novel carbon removal technologies. If Brazil were to have net removals from LULUCF of about -400 MtCO₂e/yr by 2040 and -700 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050, as projected in a report by CDP Latin America with the assumption of reaching zero deforestation by 2030, net zero GHG emissions could be achieved around 2040.14
4 Gütschow, J., Jeffery, L., Gieseke, R. & Günther, A. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2017). V.2.1. GFZ Data Services (2019) doi:10.5880/PIK.2019.018.
5 Silva Junior, C. H. L. et al. The Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate in 2020 is the greatest of the decade. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 144–145 (2021).
13 Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C. & Ranganathan, J. Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. World Resources Report (2019).
In a 1.5°C compatible pathway, the share of renewables in Brazil’s energy sector would need to reach above 60% by 2030. In two of the scenarios analysed, renewables reach close to 100% by mid-century, while fossil fuels are almost entirely phased out by this time.
The Brazilian government expects renewables to make up a 48% share of the primary energy mix by 2030, falling more than 10 percentage points short of what is needed to be 1.5°C aligned.2 A much faster renewables scale-up will be required, especially if energy demand is to grow as planned. While the government foresees a large role for biofuels like ethanol for transport, these fuels require land to grow their crop feedstocks, leading to increased deforestation, and are resource intensive.13 More emphasis will be needed on renewable powered electrification and energy efficiency.
The government’s planned growth in fossil fuel use is not consistent with any 1.5°C compatible pathway. While 1.5°C pathways show a maximum of 4 EJ from non-renewables in 2030, the government’s energy infrastructure plans include 8 EJ by this time, most of which is from oil and gas.2 By 2050, 1.5°C pathways show a very low or negligible level of remaining unabated fossil fuels.
Scenarios that keep fossil fuels in the energy system for longer or have very high energy demand deploy negative CO₂ emissions technologies as early as 2030.
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Brazil. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.