Energy consumption of the transport sector in Bangladesh has been steadily increasing since 2008, with the sector consuming 12% of total energy in 2019.16 The share of electricity is currently around zero and is required to grow up to 4-9% by 2030 and 21-24% by 2050 in analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways. All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions from transport sector to 0-5 MtCO₂/yr by 2050 from 12 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, mostly driven by a high electrification rate and introduction of biofuels in the fuel mix.
Energy demand for transport sector is currently completely met by fossil fuels (100% in 2019), mostly oil (70%) and natural gas (30%). All 1.5ºC-compatible scenarios show a declining share of fossil energy in the transport sector’s energy mix from 2019.
To achieve greater efficiency in transport, Bangladesh aims the expansion of its Mass Rapid Transit and Bus Rapid Transit system in Dhaka City with maiden electric bus service.13,30 Bangladeshi government plans to construct 798 km of new rail line by 2025 and to introduce energy-efficient locomotives.30
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32 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for countries, they underestimate the feasible space for developed countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
33 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.
34 At the regional level, models suggest coal-fired power to be phased out in South Asian countries by 2040.31
Bangladeshʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Bangladeshʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Bangladesh
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 12 | 5 to 9 | 4 to 5 | 0 to 5 | 2048 to 2065 |
Relative to reference year in % | −56 to −27% | −63 to −56% | −100 to −59% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 4 to 9 | 11 to 16 | 21 to 24 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 0 | 1 to 2 | 1 to 6 | 2 to 12 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 2 to 21 | 44 to 48 | 52 to 77 |