In its updated 2020 NDC, Bangladesh reiterates its pledges stated in its 2015 NDC of an unconditional emissions reduction of 5% below business as usual (BAU) levels, and a conditional contribution of 15% below BAU by 2030. The NDC covers only the power, transport and industry sectors.
We estimate that Bangladesh’s conditional NDC translates into a level of emissions of 267 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or 115% above 2011 levels, excluding its land sector.
With sufficient international support Bangladesh will be able to implement its 1.5°C domestic emissions pathway requiring emissions levels of 82-114 MtCO₂e/yr or 8-30% below 2011 levels by 2030 excluding LULUCF.
Long-term 1.5°C compatible pathways show that Bangladesh could achieve GHG emissions reductions of about 56-74% below 2011 by 2050, or 32-54 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF.
On the road to net zero, the country would need to balance its remaining emissions, mostly coming from agriculture and waste through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal approaches, either from the land sector, or technological options such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
The country will need to implement stringent policies to reduce its LULUCF emissions which were a source of emissions in 2012 to further contribute to negative emissions.,